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+--- Thread: ELIA: UK Referendum (/showthread.php?tid=16528)
RE: ELIA: UK Referendum - Rusty Knight - 06-24-2016
So the latest overview for those of you not following the news in the UK,
Our PM has resigned, although his departure won't be until the ruling party conference in October in order to try provide stability and transition to a new PM who will lead the UK in its renegotiation and departure from the EU. He has explicitly stated he will not be activating article 50 himself. Which means it'll be three months until that two year period begins at the earliest.
The Leave campaign is certainly not looking to activate article 50 anytime soon; they fully intend to handle as much negotiation and sort the framework of an independent UK before activating anything. In contrast the EU has stated they want the UK to do it as quickly as possible; although they've no ability to force the UK out until it decides. Bare in mind the UK retains its veto and voice in the EU until article 50 is activated; then we lose both.
The current timescale being ball parked by the leave campaign is activating article 50 some time in 2018, which would mean we'd leave the EU in 2020. IF this remains the plan who knows.
Scotland's SNP (Scottish National Party) is looking to depart the UK and join the EU. The first minister for Scotland fully intends to talk to all the EU countries to try get an idea if they will be able to join if they did leave. Its worth while noting however the UK Referendum is just that, the UK referendum. It wasn't the Scottish/Northern Irish/Welsh/English referendum; will they legally be able to claim a second referendum? Who knows, let alone win it. Despite all of Scotland technically declaring for a remain vote almost every Scottish voting area was within 10%ish of the 50/50 mark. Some of the areas were as little was 0.9% difference between leave/remain having the most votes.
Northern Ireland is something too difficult to guess; the history of Northern Ireland will make any attempt to unify the two potentially a very bloody affair. Unionists and Nationalists are both extremely unlikely to yield willingly, especially with only 10%ish of the vote swaying in favour of remain. In my opinion what the UK negotiates with Ireland will decide if this is pursued or not. Hard border controls (passport, customs, immigration ect) will certainly prompt it if implemented, even then expect conflict.
Gibraltar has already had its sovereignty reaffirmed by the government which has declared it has no intentions of yielding the rock or entering into any sort of 'sharing' deal with Spain. Not only does it serve as a strategic military position but it also shares a similar feeling with the Falkland Islands, of which Argentina has tried many times (Famously waging war in an attempt) to secure them. The feeling on the rock is very much of rising to the challenge according to the news.
At the moment the main priority for everyone is settling down the financial sector and this is being echoed by all financial institutions who are seeking clarity on the economic plan. The Bank of England, IMF and US Banking sector are working hard to stabilise the situation, its worth noting since the last big financial crashes all banks have had to prepare and drill contingency plans for catastrophic circumstances far beyond what we're currently experiencing. Now is the test to see if they pay off in reality.
Regarding the call for a second referendum with a higher majority required to leave the EU happening....
The chance of it happening is like soloing Nidhogg EX. Its not going to happen, the political consequences of a second vote would be massive and go against the nature of democracy. It's always been quite clearly stated in the UK that it was a once only affair.
TLDR;
The UK and its territories are currently wounded and its going to take a helluva lot of healing both politically, financially and among the population as we deal with the fallout. Don't expect any big decisions soon.
RE: ELIA: UK Referendum - Valence - 06-24-2016
Scotland voted 62% for remain. That's not 'almost everything was near the 50:50 margin' or something is borked mathematically in the UK...
RE: ELIA: UK Referendum - Oyuu - 06-24-2016
(06-24-2016, 11:29 AM)Valence Wrote: Scotland voted 62% for remain. That's not 'almost everything was near the 50:50 margin' or something is borked mathematically in the UK...
I'm trying to find the source, but I think they are referring to some of the different counties/regions within Scotland voting almost 50/50, not Scotland as a whole.
RE: ELIA: UK Referendum - Nebbs - 06-24-2016
This was an each vote counts. I am sure much will be drawn from location, age and other demographic things.Â
It will be a frenzy of positioning now, there will be experts under every rock.
Note that the view was UK would vote stay in, but then voted get out. So I would take any assertions on how people think as dubious.
the lesson, be careful when you give people a vote.. they will vote based on their reality not yours.
RE: ELIA: UK Referendum - Oyuu - 06-24-2016
(06-24-2016, 11:35 AM)Oyuu Wrote:(06-24-2016, 11:29 AM)Valence Wrote: Scotland voted 62% for remain. That's not 'almost everything was near the 50:50 margin' or something is borked mathematically in the UK...
I'm trying to find the source, but I think they are referring to some of the different counties/regions within Scotland voting almost 50/50, not Scotland as a whole.
Found it: Source
Although there was only a couple of regions that voted below 55% Remain.
RE: ELIA: UK Referendum - Rusty Knight - 06-24-2016
(06-24-2016, 11:29 AM)Valence Wrote: Scotland voted 62% for remain. That's not 'almost everything was near the 50:50 margin' or something is borked mathematically in the UK...
Quote:almost every Scottish voting area was within 10%ish of the 50/50 mark
The emphasis was on the fact whilst Scotland did vote 62% to remain a member of the EU, in quite a few regions it was much closer then the SNP would of liked. It certainly wasn't an overwhelming majority of 75%+ of the vote. If this translates into a taste for independence themselves from a union that has existed long before the EU, who knows. Certainly the Scots I work with don't believe it will happen.
Until talks get underway and Scotland formally petitions for a second referendum we will have to wait and see.
For those of you interested, the BBC have a good interactive map showing remain areas in yellow, leave in blue with breakdowns ect.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_referendum/results
Damn, too slow! Lel.
RE: ELIA: UK Referendum - Maril - 06-24-2016
(06-24-2016, 11:22 AM)Kage Wrote:(06-24-2016, 10:08 AM)Kellach Woods Wrote:"Dexit"(06-24-2016, 08:36 AM)Nailah Wrote: They just please shouldn't call it Danxit because that sounds stupid >.<
Brexit sounded fucking stupid and that didn't stop them.
Other consequences: Scotland might be considering a second referendum.
Ireland is reconsidering reunification too.
That kind of sound like some new dental product. "Try Dexit, it'll make your caries exit!"
RE: ELIA: UK Referendum - Virella - 06-24-2016
(06-24-2016, 12:08 PM)Nailah Wrote:People are shouting for a Nexit ever since our gov ignore the outcome with the Dutch voting NO against Ukraine.(06-24-2016, 11:22 AM)Kage Wrote:(06-24-2016, 10:08 AM)Kellach Woods Wrote:"Dexit"(06-24-2016, 08:36 AM)Nailah Wrote: They just please shouldn't call it Danxit because that sounds stupid >.<
Brexit sounded fucking stupid and that didn't stop them.
Other consequences: Scotland might be considering a second referendum.
Ireland is reconsidering reunification too.
That kind of sound like some new dental product. "Try Dexit, it'll make your caries exit!"
Whereas I'm cautious about seeing the Dutch leaving the EU, my gov needs to go.
RE: ELIA: UK Referendum - Valence - 06-24-2016
(06-24-2016, 11:40 AM)Oyuu Wrote:(06-24-2016, 11:35 AM)Oyuu Wrote:(06-24-2016, 11:29 AM)Valence Wrote: Scotland voted 62% for remain. That's not 'almost everything was near the 50:50 margin' or something is borked mathematically in the UK...
I'm trying to find the source, but I think they are referring to some of the different counties/regions within Scotland voting almost 50/50, not Scotland as a whole.
Found it: Source
Although there was only a couple of regions that voted below 55% Remain.
Ah thanks. Interesting. Most of them are indeed above 55 then.
(06-24-2016, 11:46 AM)Scarlet Heath Wrote:(06-24-2016, 11:29 AM)Valence Wrote: Scotland voted 62% for remain. That's not 'almost everything was near the 50:50 margin' or something is borked mathematically in the UK...
Quote:almost every Scottish voting area was within 10%ish of the 50/50 mark
The emphasis was on the fact whilst Scotland did vote 62% to remain a member of the EU, in quite a few regions it was much closer then the SNP would of liked. It certainly wasn't an overwhelming majority of 75%+ of the vote.
I think I see what you mean.
Well, the thing I was also getting at is that 62/38 is actually very unbalance already. It's not just 12% over 50 (half), but a difference of 24% between both, which means a equivalent of a quarter of the population.
It's not exactly small, it's usually already considered pretty sweeping in most election stuff.
RE: ELIA: UK Referendum - LiadansWhisper - 06-24-2016
(06-24-2016, 11:22 AM)Kage Wrote: Ireland is reconsidering reunification too.
This is unlikely to happen without serious bloodshed. Citizens of Northern Ireland already have a right to Irish citizenship and the right to move there if they wish. There's already been one vicious, violent, bloody civil war over the idea of reunification.
RE: ELIA: UK Referendum - Momo - 06-24-2016
Is there no chance that this could come to peace between all parties? There is a petition to Parliament already at enough signatures to be seen, though I am certain they can just drop it after looking at it for one second.
If immigration rules can be reconsidered for each individual nation, and Scottland be allowed back in, perhaps some reason could be seen to help settle much of the EU? The pound's dropping worth is also something I feel they should consider, since the EU has been doing so well by world standards since its creation.
As someone who has always appreciated the cultural differences of the European countries, and their ability to, when needed, work things out in the recent lifetimes, I would hate to see that standard be broken in this manner.
(To be clear, I am of the US, so I am mostly asking what can be done, if anything, to help resolve this)
RE: ELIA: UK Referendum - Valence - 06-25-2016
(06-24-2016, 08:33 PM)Momo Wrote: Is there no chance that this could come to peace between all parties? There is a petition to Parliament already at enough signatures to be seen, though I am certain they can just drop it after looking at it for one second.
If immigration rules can be reconsidered for each individual nation, and Scottland be allowed back in, perhaps some reason could be seen to help settle much of the EU? The pound's dropping worth is also something I feel they should consider, since the EU has been doing so well by world standards since its creation.
As someone who has always appreciated the cultural differences of the European countries, and their ability to, when needed, work things out in the recent lifetimes, I would hate to see that standard be broken in this manner.
(To be clear, I am of the US, so I am mostly asking what can be done, if anything, to help resolve this)
I'm not totally sure where you are getting at so my apologies in advance if I understood wrongly...
In any case, on immigration, the thing with the UK is that the country is not integrated at the same level than say, founding nations (Germany, France, Italy, Benelux). They are not part of the eurozone, not part of the free move Schengen zone (unlike Iceland by the way, which is not even a member and that is funny), and the latter means that immigration has always been controled as the UK saw it fit rather than to the european letter. They had deals with France in the north of the country so that they could directly exert that level of control here, upstream, before they get on the island proper.
All in all, immigration in the EU has been pretty much left to every member unlike many other things, and most countries are doing a bit what they want on the matter, as we have seen with the recent fiasco around all the Middle East refugees (the opposition between northern countries that did what they could to welcome the most of it, and eastern and southern Europe that groaned a lot not to do it, or outright closed their borders like Hungary).
For Scotland being allowed back in, it's... an incredibly arduous process: you already need two years to enact article 50 to leave the Union. That article has never been used up until now and was actually rushed in haste into the existing Lisbon Accords when the EU constitution was scrapped due to various referendums 10 years ago (in Ireland, France, etc... well I can only speak for France where that constitution was deemed way too liberal/capitalistic for most people). So it means it will be even harder since it will be the first time with the UK. The UK are also waiting for their next Prime Minister to enact it, which delays the thing even further.
At the same time we have Scotland that wants a new referendum because, quoting Sturgeon "The priority is on the interests of Scotland and they don't want to leave the EU against their will, due to someone else decision". We don't even know where this is going, but if Westminster even allows that to begin with, then you might agree that an independence process for them might take a bit of time too. They have to first leave the UK, then join back the EU. Not a small feat, you will agree.
Then comes the other major hurdle, which is getting back into the EU. Because willingly or not, Scotland will have in essence left the Union, and like the UK, will have to start negotiating back all those agreements from scratch, and even more in their case, they will have to actually apply to be a member again. Those applications takes a lot of years, or decades sometimes. I'm sure it can be sped up a little bit since they were already part of it, but you see the issue. That's the bureaucratic side of the giant that the EU administration has turned into.
So it's only the beginning and I'm afraid that to have answers, we will have to wait a certain amount of years/time now, because nobody really knows where all of this is going...
RE: ELIA: UK Referendum - Nebbs - 06-25-2016
When all is said and done this will either bring us (UK) together or apart. The past 5+ years have been difficult, and it is always easy to find differences.
We here on these isles are used to backing the underdog, we love a challenge, and we are resilient in the face of threats.
The way out of this is together, and not every one for themselves.
We (yes we the whole UK) voted to leave the EU, the challenge now is how that happens without making us apart from Europe, and without turning inward on ourselves.
RE: ELIA: UK Referendum - Rusty Knight - 06-25-2016
The sun rises, its D-Day+1 and the world is still in a bit of shock.
I think its worthwhile mentioning a specific point which is the extent of the victory of 'Leave' over 'Remain' and the consequences this holds.
Leave: 51.9%
Remain:48.1%
The closeness of the vote, despite Leave having won the election will play a major role (I foresee) in the negotiation process. Whilst it is indisputable no matter the argument made by individuals wanting a second vote (See European Union Referendum Act 2015) that the UK has voted to leave the European Union; what level of association it may have with the 27 Member bloc as possibly a partner country is up for grabs. (Note: Germany has already stated the UK as an Associated Partner Country is the ideal outcome)
The majority of elected members of Parliament (MP) are avid EU supporters and the legislation that will be passed and negotiations that feature with the EU will unmistakably involve their input, considerably. Striking a balance in negotiations that fulfill the desires of both leave and remain will be critical.
Could this mean the UK rejoins the Single Market? Possibly, however this would be highly contested as it would again close off the UK's ability to create trade deals externally. A major campaigning point for a 'Global UK' that was used by Leave. Plus the legislation that is cited as red tape stems from the Single Market. (Reality Check: for the UK to continue trading with EU countries our goods still need to meet all European criteria to be traded)
Could this mean the UK adopts the free movement of people? (Schengen) The answer to this one is its extremely unlikely. The UK wasn't a full member of Schengen before the referendum and the appetite for it is still non-existent. We in the UK are fairly unanimous that we want border controls maintained.
What it could mean however... is that the UK negotiates to maintain its current variation of Schengen. Which means passport controls and checks are still enforced to UK standards however visa free travel ect remain free and open to all European Citizens. (Note, by not being a member of the single market, AFAIK this means the UK would not have to accept the free movement of peoples in relation to work. Which would satisfy the concerns regarding unlimited migration to the UK which was a key point in the campaign.)
On Northern Ireland
The First Minister for Northern Ireland has already made clear that until both religious elements in Northern Ireland express indisputable desire to join the Republic then a borders vote is out of the question. It is also been stated that hard border controls will be opposed at every turn. To reference the UK maintaining its current variation of Schengen, the Republic of Ireland utilises an /identical/ variation which has always allowed Irish and UK citizens to move back and forth freely, without the need for border controls.
I think that point makes the possibility of us maintaining free movement in some movement with the EU Bloc very high. The appetite both by the remain camp and political economical needs is there.
On Scotland
It is important to recognise that an independent Scotland whilst predominant in the news as a possibility, is a long way off. The SNP must first build a case as to why Scotland, who voted not two years past to remain a member of the United Kingdom suddenly wants to no longer be a member of the United Kingdom because of a UK wide referendum.
How does this affect the wider world? Quite simply even if Scotland can make a case and have a referendum approved in Westminster, it'll take around two years for the vote to happen from that date. Then Scotland will depart the Union and have to fend for itself whilst it applies to become a member of the European Union; a lengthy process in itself.
All the while the UK will still be recovering and establishing its place once more in the world; whilst Scotland in comparison will be seeing a second coming of current events with very little support. Not to say it won't happen, but its a while off yet.
Trade Trade Trade
The interest in trade deals is already beginning to come in now the results are out. Canada, the United States and Ghana being the three noted ones at the current time. The TTIP (Proposed trade agreement between the USA and EU) is currently slowing down due to resistance in the EU and its been noted that negotiating a trade deal of some form with the UK alone would be far less time consuming and complex due to a close relationship. There would still be barriers to cross however two countries coming to an agreement rather than 28 is obviously easier.
Its a long way off but in the future, depending on whats decided our American and Canadian friends may find buying and selling things the UK gets much cheaper and easier. Maybe travel will get thrown in there too for visa-less.
Isn't the UK Currency getting smashed?
For those of you with assets in Stirling; or well any currency around the world you'll be well aware of the hit that Brexit has given the world economy. Even Asia was rushing liquid assets into the market to stabilise the situation with damage control worldwide in full effect.
The FTSE 100 (UK Stock Exchange) lost significant ground, however the pound rallied past levels it had dropped to in Feburary. The FTSE 100 then closed on a weekly high, 2.4% higher then it was last Friday and the best performance in 4 months.
Give it a month or two and the Stirling will be back around its normal levels.
A drop in Stirling Value isn't all bad...
For those of you wanting to purchase goods in the UK now is the time. With the depreciation in Stirling UK Exports are much more competitive and have seen a boom since the Brexit result. Pharmaceuticals have been making even /more/ profits then usual.
RE: ELIA: UK Referendum - Grenat Querroux - 06-25-2016
(06-25-2016, 05:29 AM)Nebbs Wrote: The way out of this is together, and not every one for themselves.
No small irony inheres there.
(06-25-2016, 06:19 AM)Scarlet Heath Wrote: All the while the UK will still be recovering and establishing its place once more in the world; whilst Scotland in comparison will be seeing a second coming of current events with very little support. Not to say it won't happen, but its a while off yet.
I'm not sure about 'very little support'. Sturgeon is not unaware of all this, has been lobbying the EU member states for special consideration as early as today, and there is a lot of incentive for the EU to accommodate her in the way that they would not, say, accommodate Erdogan's Turkey. It is a little early to make firm bets, but I would not discount Scottish independence on the back of this, in the medium-term.
With regard to consequences in trade, it is of course true that a lower currency boosts exports, but the UK is not an exporting country, a few sectors like pharmaceuticals aside. The British economy is (to the tune of some three quarters of GDP) service-based, and trade in services with the EU is going to become very complicated because as you pointed out it is impossible for the UK to join the EEA and restore free movement. Shifts in confidence and credit ratings affect it disproportionately, too, and here we are this morning with Moody's cutting outlook. You cite the FTSE 100 rallying somewhat from its immediate descent, but it is weighted toward companies that can count on overseas revenue, and notably includes mining companies, which always benefit from the flight to gold in the face of financial disaster.
A better measure would be the FTSE 250, which is more dependent on UK revenue and remains funereal, and of course the banks themselves, lopped off by a third.The UK will not become an international pariah over this, and certainly, bilateral trade deals will be concluded quickly enough. However, the UK has nowhere near the leverage in such negotiations that the giant European market does, and so the agreements, while less time consuming, are likely to be less favourable. For all the warm talk from the Americans and Canadians about historical ties and special relationships, they are likely to be quite hard-nosed about this. Overall investment in the UK is likely to go down, simply because a lot of businesses are averse to uncertainty. I am aware of several corporations here in Canada which have viewed the UK specifically through the lens of regulatory access to the EU and will likely be shifting operations to the continent.
The EU itself has tried to be gracious about the whole thing, and it is true that German exporters in particular would like trade relations smoothed over as soon as possible. There is talk, all the same, of negotiating harshly for the sake of 'deterrence' with a view to preventing other exits (some alluded to in the thread) and of course the Swiss, Norwegians and Icelanders would be right to wonder what the UK has done to earn any future preferential treatment.
So, tough times ahead. I do hope, at this point, that the best prognoses turn out true and the UK will thrive in the end, but it does no good to whistle past the graveyard.