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Kilieit · **05-19-2017, 05:53 PM**

Yeah. I'd need to look into it more and probably be better at statistics to work out likely thresholds for sure, because I think some of the servers had their total population taken into account as well while being selected for locks...

...but in terms of active population, the smallest realm that received a lock - Mandragora -
has a population of 7k. Balmung has almost double that.

Like I say, I think Mandragora's total population was probably taken into account as well? But I still think that's something to bear in mind when speculating on how long it will be before the lock is lifted.

Kage · **05-19-2017, 05:57 PM**

(05-19-2017, 05:53 PM)Kilieit Wrote: Yeah. I'd need to look into it more and probably be better at statistics to work out likely thresholds for sure, because I think some of the servers had their total population taken into account as well while being selected for locks...

...but in terms of active population, the smallest realm that received a lock - Mandragora -
has a population of 7k. Balmung has almost double that.

Like I say, I think Mandragora's total population was probably taken into account as well? But I still think that's something to bear in mind when speculating on how long it will be before the lock is lifted.

I actually think Mandragora was chosen because it was top 3 of its data center. Leviathan and Tonberry have similar numbers but they're only the top in their data centers. There isn't as drastic a difference in populations.

Based on Bahamut's 9-10k lock on a single server, I think that's more of the hard limit. 7-8k is a soft limit for 'highly congested'.

I'm less sure of the "well there's no split coming" now. xD; I didn't know FFXI had that similar situation.

Lydia Lightfoot · **05-19-2017, 05:57 PM**

(05-19-2017, 05:53 PM)Kilieit Wrote: Yeah. I'd need to look into it more and probably be better at statistics to work out likely thresholds for sure, because I think some of the servers had their total population taken into account as well while being selected for locks...

...but in terms of active population, the smallest realm that received a lock - Mandragora -
has a population of 7k. Balmung has almost double that.

Like I say, I think Mandragora's total population was probably taken into account as well? But I still think that's something to bear in mind when speculating on how long it will be before the lock is lifted.

We have above 26k according to the chart in this thread back on... page 16 or 17 I think? Somewhere around there. Gilgamesh is a bit over 18k and is the second highest. The high ones below Gilgamesh are all in the 11-13k range IIRC. I don't know off the top of my head which ones were locked, but, the numbers say even if Balmung were split 50/50 into two new servers, those two new servers would themselves already be considered high-population servers (and likely subject to transfer restrictions).

ArmachiA · **05-19-2017, 06:01 PM**

It's a real possibility, we can only hope they give us some choice as to where we end up when we split.

Kilieit · **05-19-2017, 06:01 PM**

There's two sets of statistics - total, and active. They can be found here:
https://ffxivcensus.com/

Balmung's total isn't even near top for NA, at 148k versus Famfrit's 289k (most of which are going to be bots, btw). But its active is far and away the highest, at 13k versus Gilgamesh's 11k.

We could lose 2,000 active players and still not be eligible for unlock.

Kage · **05-19-2017, 06:04 PM**

[Image: tumblr_inline_oq61p0JFgj1qgbh9m_1280.png]

[Image: tumblr_inline_oq61ozdG8H1qgbh9m_1280.png]

[Image: tumblr_inline_oq61oyfqh01qgbh9m_1280.png]

[Image: tumblr_inline_oq7k5bWR6X1qgbh9m_1280.png]

I'll probably make another line graph tonight to better show how the data centers' worlds are grouped instead of how the census put them all alphabetical like that. I'll order it by data center so it shows why Leviathan and Tonberry aren't as bad, yet.

Lydia Lightfoot · **05-19-2017, 06:04 PM**

(05-19-2017, 06:01 PM)Kilieit Wrote: There's two sets of statistics - total, and active. They can be found here:
https://ffxivcensus.com/

Balmung's total isn't even near top for NA, at 148k versus Famfrit's 289k (most of which are going to be bots, btw). But its active is far and away the highest, at 13k versus Gilgamesh's 11k.

We could lose 2,000 active players and still not be eligible for unlock.

Hmm. Correlates pretty much the same with what I'd said earlier, that if they had a smashing success with incentives and 25% of Balmung vacated, we'd still be about on par with Gilgamesh, which is also locked, and thus we would still not be unlocked.

Yeah, I'm smelling a split, guys. I'm smelling a split about 2 months after Stormblood's launch. I'm calling it right now.

Lydia Lightfoot · **05-19-2017, 06:10 PM**

Ohhhhhhhhhh it just became clear to me.Â

Two months or so after Stormblood drops, server reorganization is announced and the high pop servers split. People are ticked, but most who were going to buy the expansion already did, too late, so sad. SE announces a date for 4.1, which they've already said is when they'll unlock more housing wards. The angry people get drowned out by the ones who are super stoked for the new housing area and the possibility of getting a house there. Some players unsub, but, other players who had previously unsubbed because they couldn't get a house resub due to the new housing coming. Subscription wash, maybe?Â

I'd almost bet actual money this is exactly what we're going to see happen.

Erah'sae · **05-19-2017, 06:15 PM**

(05-19-2017, 05:28 PM)Kage Wrote: The real question is: Is Balmung so big that if it stays at its current levels during patch lull and pre-expansion lull, that SE will decide to split it anyway as it did the FFXI server?

I don't think so since at lull levels it's stable. Â From what I understand the FFXI server was actually having rather nasty performance issues. Â Our queues during the 'lull' times are often only as long as it takes to hit "cancel" and try again (well below the 5 minute refresh timer)

Of course, this is supposition, but I don't really see a need to do it. Â With all they're hype about cross world functionality, I think they're finally moving things to less of a physical server-centric architecture anyway.

Also remember on those charts that us RPers tend to exaggerate the "active" player numbers a bit since they're based on number of loadstone characters with specific achievements. Â We often roll up multiple characters for the sake of the RP and glamour endgame that the non-RPers don't tend to do.

What numbers I'd really like to see is peak concurrency compared to the other servers. Â I'm sure we'll be much higher (since we hit the cap frequently) but other servers also hit the concurrency cap as well. Â Queues on Gilgamesh and JP's top server (chocobo? I don't have the chart infront of me) are not unheard of.

Kage · **05-19-2017, 06:17 PM**

The specifics of the data was patch 3.3 minion obtainment. I'm not sure if most RPers get past more than getting their characters to 60?

Lydia Lightfoot · **05-19-2017, 06:19 PM**

(05-19-2017, 06:17 PM)Kage Wrote: The specifics of the data was patch 3.3 minion obtainment. I'm not sure if most RPers get past more than getting their characters to 60?

Many don't even get to level cap.

Erah'sae · **05-19-2017, 06:31 PM**

(05-19-2017, 06:17 PM)Kage Wrote: The specifics of the data was patch 3.3 minion obtainment. I'm not sure if most RPers get past more than getting their characters to 60?

I've found a lot pushing to stay current so they can get into the Stormblood expansion areas at patch drop. Â

In any case I'm pulling the raw census data to see if they have some way to produce more granular activity information. Â Mostly because I have an unhealthy love for data analytics.

Virella · **05-19-2017, 07:04 PM**

(05-19-2017, 06:10 PM)Lydia Lightfoot Wrote: Ohhhhhhhhhh it just became clear to me.Â

Two months or so after Stormblood drops, server reorganization is announced and the high pop servers split. People are ticked, but most who were going to buy the expansion already did, too late, so sad. SE announces a date for 4.1, which they've already said is when they'll unlock more housing wards. The angry people get drowned out by the ones who are super stoked for the new housing area and the possibility of getting a house there. Some players unsub, but, other players who had previously unsubbed because they couldn't get a house resub due to the new housing coming. Subscription wash, maybe?Â

I'd almost bet actual money this is exactly what we're going to see happen.

And then everyone pays transfer money to end up on the right server with friends! More dollah dollah.

Arrelaine · **05-19-2017, 07:07 PM**

I'd say if they did the split, they would probably generate FC lists and try to put all of one FC on one side. Or at least you'd hope.

**Unnamed Mercenary** · **05-19-2017, 07:10 PM**

(05-19-2017, 07:07 PM)Arrelaine Wrote: I'd say if they did the split, they would probably generate FC lists and try to put all of one FC on one side. Or at least you'd hope.

They'd be in so much trouble if they broke FCs.

But then that leaves this question. During the FFXI split, what happened with people's linkshells? ...there weren't guilds/FCs or anything, right?

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Balmung Transfer Restriction Megathread

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