
Let's not discount Ul'dah without looking at what they DO have. You can't say in one breath their thaumaturges would get picked off while ignoring the fact they have a shieldwall right in the city in the Gladiator's Guild. They lack proper healing magic but the best alchemists in the world work there. It's also folly to say that their melee units can't absorb as much damage as Marauders or Lancers; Pugilists and Lancers are fairly even, and without defiance or shield oath, MRD and GLD are pretty even.
Speaking of, there's a significant advantage that Ul'dah does have: Access to home-grown Paladins, since the job and order absolutely belong there. That means their ground units DO have access to Shield Oath, making them much more formidable than you're letting on.
I don't think it would be so cut and dry as "Ul'dah loses." That said, I do think Limsa's got the best chance.
Speaking of, there's a significant advantage that Ul'dah does have: Access to home-grown Paladins, since the job and order absolutely belong there. That means their ground units DO have access to Shield Oath, making them much more formidable than you're letting on.
I don't think it would be so cut and dry as "Ul'dah loses." That said, I do think Limsa's got the best chance.