Russia's denying that Turkey tried to warn them away.
In any case, according to the map Turkey's showing around, it's not really the equivalent of someone stumbling into your home. It's more like they took a shortcut by stepping on a corner of your property. Assuming that Turkey's map is correct, the Russian jet would have been in Turkish airspace for something like 12 seconds.
What's interesting about this is the video Turkey released showing the plane falling. It's very high quality, very stable, and starts moments after the Russian jet was hit. I don't have a horse in this particular race, but I have been a student of the region (and Russia) for a long time, and it looks to me like this is something that Turkey expected to do and prepared to do.
One thing that makes this especially interesting is the aircraft Russia stationed at their new base in Syria: They have Su-25s and Mi-24s, which are exactly the sort of thing you'd expect for bombing rebels in the hills. But they also have Su-24 and Su-34 interdictors, which aren't really what you'd expect to see. Both are supersonic bombers designed to scoot in fast and low and hit hardened targets. But they also stationed Su-30SM fighters, too. Su-30s can operate as strike aircraft, but it's a poor use for them. What they're made for is air to air combat, and the Syrian rebels have no aircraft.
My theory is that Russia is positioning itself to be a regional power in the middle east. Turkey, who's long seen itself as the regional power in the area, clearly is opposed to this, especially since Russia supports Assad. Russia is no stranger to power plays in the middle east, and it shows, because those Su-30s are clearly aimed at Turkey's air force.
In any case, according to the map Turkey's showing around, it's not really the equivalent of someone stumbling into your home. It's more like they took a shortcut by stepping on a corner of your property. Assuming that Turkey's map is correct, the Russian jet would have been in Turkish airspace for something like 12 seconds.
![[Image: IMG_8950.JPG]](http://graphics8.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2015/11/24/turkey-russia-shootdown/e2b5d16787c1fe8c0c89e3a3aaf6cdb960d84a3a/IMG_8950.JPG)
What's interesting about this is the video Turkey released showing the plane falling. It's very high quality, very stable, and starts moments after the Russian jet was hit. I don't have a horse in this particular race, but I have been a student of the region (and Russia) for a long time, and it looks to me like this is something that Turkey expected to do and prepared to do.
One thing that makes this especially interesting is the aircraft Russia stationed at their new base in Syria: They have Su-25s and Mi-24s, which are exactly the sort of thing you'd expect for bombing rebels in the hills. But they also have Su-24 and Su-34 interdictors, which aren't really what you'd expect to see. Both are supersonic bombers designed to scoot in fast and low and hit hardened targets. But they also stationed Su-30SM fighters, too. Su-30s can operate as strike aircraft, but it's a poor use for them. What they're made for is air to air combat, and the Syrian rebels have no aircraft.
My theory is that Russia is positioning itself to be a regional power in the middle east. Turkey, who's long seen itself as the regional power in the area, clearly is opposed to this, especially since Russia supports Assad. Russia is no stranger to power plays in the middle east, and it shows, because those Su-30s are clearly aimed at Turkey's air force.
