(11-24-2015, 07:05 PM)Setoh Aliapoh Wrote: Russia's denying that Turkey tried to warn them away.
In any case, according to the map Turkey's showing around, it's not really the equivalent of someone stumbling into your home. It's more like they took a shortcut by stepping on a corner of your property. Assuming that Turkey's map is correct, the Russian jet would have been in Turkish airspace for something like 12 seconds.
What's interesting about this is the video Turkey released showing the plane falling. It's very high quality, very stable, and starts moments after the Russian jet was hit. I don't have a horse in this particular race, but I have been a student of the region (and Russia) for a long time, and it looks to me like this is something that Turkey expected to do and prepared to do.
One thing that makes this especially interesting is the aircraft Russia stationed at their new base in Syria: They have Su-25s and Mi-24s, which are exactly the sort of thing you'd expect for bombing rebels in the hills. But they also have Su-24 and Su-34 interdictors, which aren't really what you'd expect to see. Both are supersonic bombers designed to scoot in fast and low and hit hardened targets. But they also stationed Su-30SM fighters, too. Su-30s can operate as strike aircraft, but it's a poor use for them. What they're made for is air to air combat, and the Syrian rebels have no aircraft.
My theory is that Russia is positioning itself to be a regional power in the middle east. Turkey, who's long seen itself as the regional power in the area, clearly is opposed to this, especially since Russia supports Assad. Russia is no stranger to power plays in the middle east, and it shows, because those Su-30s are clearly aimed at Turkey's air force.
![[Image: IMG_8950.JPG]](http://graphics8.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2015/11/24/turkey-russia-shootdown/e2b5d16787c1fe8c0c89e3a3aaf6cdb960d84a3a/IMG_8950.JPG)
Yeah it really seems like political posturing.Â
I think that's why Russia is backing Assad in force here, they need him, his regime, and Syria as a base of operations for further power projection. Russia doesn't have aircraft carriers so it needs physical land. That's why they're focusing their bombing on both ISIS and the Free Syrians, since they are both threats to Assad.Â
Turkey obviously doesn't want a newly aggressive Russia at its doorstep, so they're doing their best to tell Russia to fuck off without an overt act of war. It's pretty clear Turkey was waiting for a chance like this, and the filming means that they're not embarrassed by it. They want russia to get the message loud and clear.Â
What's unclear is if Russia sent the plane there on purpose to send a message of their own, which if true would be pretty shitty, as they basically just sent two people to their deaths.Â
Either way, what comes next will be interesting. It seems from the way this played out that NATO wasn't informed of this, and that Turkey has done it on their own.
