The sun rises, its D-Day+1 and the world is still in a bit of shock.
I think its worthwhile mentioning a specific point which is the extent of the victory of 'Leave' over 'Remain' and the consequences this holds.
Leave: 51.9%
Remain:48.1%
The closeness of the vote, despite Leave having won the election will play a major role (I foresee) in the negotiation process. Whilst it is indisputable no matter the argument made by individuals wanting a second vote (See European Union Referendum Act 2015) that the UK has voted to leave the European Union; what level of association it may have with the 27 Member bloc as possibly a partner country is up for grabs. (Note: Germany has already stated the UK as an Associated Partner Country is the ideal outcome)
The majority of elected members of Parliament (MP) are avid EU supporters and the legislation that will be passed and negotiations that feature with the EU will unmistakably involve their input, considerably. Striking a balance in negotiations that fulfill the desires of both leave and remain will be critical.
Could this mean the UK rejoins the Single Market? Possibly, however this would be highly contested as it would again close off the UK's ability to create trade deals externally. A major campaigning point for a 'Global UK' that was used by Leave. Plus the legislation that is cited as red tape stems from the Single Market. (Reality Check: for the UK to continue trading with EU countries our goods still need to meet all European criteria to be traded)
Could this mean the UK adopts the free movement of people? (Schengen) The answer to this one is its extremely unlikely. The UK wasn't a full member of Schengen before the referendum and the appetite for it is still non-existent. We in the UK are fairly unanimous that we want border controls maintained.
What it could mean however... is that the UK negotiates to maintain its current variation of Schengen. Which means passport controls and checks are still enforced to UK standards however visa free travel ect remain free and open to all European Citizens. (Note, by not being a member of the single market, AFAIK this means the UK would not have to accept the free movement of peoples in relation to work. Which would satisfy the concerns regarding unlimited migration to the UK which was a key point in the campaign.)
On Northern Ireland
The First Minister for Northern Ireland has already made clear that until both religious elements in Northern Ireland express indisputable desire to join the Republic then a borders vote is out of the question. It is also been stated that hard border controls will be opposed at every turn. To reference the UK maintaining its current variation of Schengen, the Republic of Ireland utilises an /identical/ variation which has always allowed Irish and UK citizens to move back and forth freely, without the need for border controls.
I think that point makes the possibility of us maintaining free movement in some movement with the EU Bloc very high. The appetite both by the remain camp and political economical needs is there.
On Scotland
It is important to recognise that an independent Scotland whilst predominant in the news as a possibility, is a long way off. The SNP must first build a case as to why Scotland, who voted not two years past to remain a member of the United Kingdom suddenly wants to no longer be a member of the United Kingdom because of a UK wide referendum.
How does this affect the wider world? Quite simply even if Scotland can make a case and have a referendum approved in Westminster, it'll take around two years for the vote to happen from that date. Then Scotland will depart the Union and have to fend for itself whilst it applies to become a member of the European Union; a lengthy process in itself.
All the while the UK will still be recovering and establishing its place once more in the world; whilst Scotland in comparison will be seeing a second coming of current events with very little support. Not to say it won't happen, but its a while off yet.
Trade Trade Trade
The interest in trade deals is already beginning to come in now the results are out. Canada, the United States and Ghana being the three noted ones at the current time. The TTIP (Proposed trade agreement between the USA and EU) is currently slowing down due to resistance in the EU and its been noted that negotiating a trade deal of some form with the UK alone would be far less time consuming and complex due to a close relationship. There would still be barriers to cross however two countries coming to an agreement rather than 28 is obviously easier.
Its a long way off but in the future, depending on whats decided our American and Canadian friends may find buying and selling things the UK gets much cheaper and easier. Maybe travel will get thrown in there too for visa-less.
Isn't the UK Currency getting smashed?
For those of you with assets in Stirling; or well any currency around the world you'll be well aware of the hit that Brexit has given the world economy. Even Asia was rushing liquid assets into the market to stabilise the situation with damage control worldwide in full effect.
The FTSE 100 (UK Stock Exchange) lost significant ground, however the pound rallied past levels it had dropped to in Feburary. The FTSE 100 then closed on a weekly high, 2.4% higher then it was last Friday and the best performance in 4 months.
Give it a month or two and the Stirling will be back around its normal levels.
A drop in Stirling Value isn't all bad...
For those of you wanting to purchase goods in the UK now is the time. With the depreciation in Stirling UK Exports are much more competitive and have seen a boom since the Brexit result. Pharmaceuticals have been making even /more/ profits then usual.
I think its worthwhile mentioning a specific point which is the extent of the victory of 'Leave' over 'Remain' and the consequences this holds.
Leave: 51.9%
Remain:48.1%
The closeness of the vote, despite Leave having won the election will play a major role (I foresee) in the negotiation process. Whilst it is indisputable no matter the argument made by individuals wanting a second vote (See European Union Referendum Act 2015) that the UK has voted to leave the European Union; what level of association it may have with the 27 Member bloc as possibly a partner country is up for grabs. (Note: Germany has already stated the UK as an Associated Partner Country is the ideal outcome)
The majority of elected members of Parliament (MP) are avid EU supporters and the legislation that will be passed and negotiations that feature with the EU will unmistakably involve their input, considerably. Striking a balance in negotiations that fulfill the desires of both leave and remain will be critical.
Could this mean the UK rejoins the Single Market? Possibly, however this would be highly contested as it would again close off the UK's ability to create trade deals externally. A major campaigning point for a 'Global UK' that was used by Leave. Plus the legislation that is cited as red tape stems from the Single Market. (Reality Check: for the UK to continue trading with EU countries our goods still need to meet all European criteria to be traded)
Could this mean the UK adopts the free movement of people? (Schengen) The answer to this one is its extremely unlikely. The UK wasn't a full member of Schengen before the referendum and the appetite for it is still non-existent. We in the UK are fairly unanimous that we want border controls maintained.
What it could mean however... is that the UK negotiates to maintain its current variation of Schengen. Which means passport controls and checks are still enforced to UK standards however visa free travel ect remain free and open to all European Citizens. (Note, by not being a member of the single market, AFAIK this means the UK would not have to accept the free movement of peoples in relation to work. Which would satisfy the concerns regarding unlimited migration to the UK which was a key point in the campaign.)
On Northern Ireland
The First Minister for Northern Ireland has already made clear that until both religious elements in Northern Ireland express indisputable desire to join the Republic then a borders vote is out of the question. It is also been stated that hard border controls will be opposed at every turn. To reference the UK maintaining its current variation of Schengen, the Republic of Ireland utilises an /identical/ variation which has always allowed Irish and UK citizens to move back and forth freely, without the need for border controls.
I think that point makes the possibility of us maintaining free movement in some movement with the EU Bloc very high. The appetite both by the remain camp and political economical needs is there.
On Scotland
It is important to recognise that an independent Scotland whilst predominant in the news as a possibility, is a long way off. The SNP must first build a case as to why Scotland, who voted not two years past to remain a member of the United Kingdom suddenly wants to no longer be a member of the United Kingdom because of a UK wide referendum.
How does this affect the wider world? Quite simply even if Scotland can make a case and have a referendum approved in Westminster, it'll take around two years for the vote to happen from that date. Then Scotland will depart the Union and have to fend for itself whilst it applies to become a member of the European Union; a lengthy process in itself.
All the while the UK will still be recovering and establishing its place once more in the world; whilst Scotland in comparison will be seeing a second coming of current events with very little support. Not to say it won't happen, but its a while off yet.
Trade Trade Trade
The interest in trade deals is already beginning to come in now the results are out. Canada, the United States and Ghana being the three noted ones at the current time. The TTIP (Proposed trade agreement between the USA and EU) is currently slowing down due to resistance in the EU and its been noted that negotiating a trade deal of some form with the UK alone would be far less time consuming and complex due to a close relationship. There would still be barriers to cross however two countries coming to an agreement rather than 28 is obviously easier.
Its a long way off but in the future, depending on whats decided our American and Canadian friends may find buying and selling things the UK gets much cheaper and easier. Maybe travel will get thrown in there too for visa-less.
Isn't the UK Currency getting smashed?
For those of you with assets in Stirling; or well any currency around the world you'll be well aware of the hit that Brexit has given the world economy. Even Asia was rushing liquid assets into the market to stabilise the situation with damage control worldwide in full effect.
The FTSE 100 (UK Stock Exchange) lost significant ground, however the pound rallied past levels it had dropped to in Feburary. The FTSE 100 then closed on a weekly high, 2.4% higher then it was last Friday and the best performance in 4 months.
Give it a month or two and the Stirling will be back around its normal levels.
A drop in Stirling Value isn't all bad...
For those of you wanting to purchase goods in the UK now is the time. With the depreciation in Stirling UK Exports are much more competitive and have seen a boom since the Brexit result. Pharmaceuticals have been making even /more/ profits then usual.
