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***Teadrinker*** · **06-24-2016, 01:32 AM**

Explain Like I'm American! UK Referendum Edition!

https://www.reddit.com/live/x53e44r52h80

I've never been able to leave the States and am unaware of the ramifications for those of you across the pond. Can anyone chime in on this and how it will affect them? I heard the analogy that it's like several States seceding from the American union but I don't know if that's an accurate analogy.

This is not a debate thread. I'm just asking for this to be focused in a lens for an American and how it might affect individual users. o/

Nebbs · **06-24-2016, 02:46 AM**

Well the political right are claiming this as "Independence day", I can't help but smile at the irony of the xenophobic UK leader adopting a US thing that was made against the British Empire.

Still the vote has been made, it means lots of uncertainty both at the National level and at individual level. Uncertainty = stress.

Globally things will pull out of UK due to that uncertainty, while others will come in to make money off the back of the confusion.

In the end we are British, we will keep a stiff upper lip and carry on.

[edit] I wonder how long before we have a UK linkshell

Virella · **06-24-2016, 03:03 AM**

As for personally affecting? With the euro dropping, but not as hard as the pound is currently? It means having to pay more for goods from non EU countries for me. A shame, but one we all saw coming with Brexit. Maybe it will get harder to travel to the UK for me, given I do visit it on a yearly base since the past few year.

It is a wait and see situation. But that is the direct thing I can tell as a Dutch citizen what will instantly influence me as of now. The rest? A wait and see situation. It may usher in the start of massive reforming of the EU, or it breaking completely apart, and certain countries starting a new alliance. Who knows?

And this is the point I will hush, at OP's request I won't start fuelling a debate, unlike Nebs who's trying to bait it currently. I can start massive rants about the EU, and their wrongdoings, but I won't. (As well, most of my sources are made by Dutch journalists sadly enough. And I fear I won't get far with Dutchie gobbiespeak here Tongue

) Nebs, go slap yourself on the wrist, and no tea for you tonight.

Rusty Knight · **06-24-2016, 03:08 AM**

Quote:Can anyone chime in on this and how it will affect them? I heard the analogy that it's like several States seceding from the American union but I don't know if that's an accurate analogy.

Lots of confusion, an initial market crash followed by a slow stablisation and lots of negotiations to sort out the departure of the United Kingdom from the EU.

There is no change in day to day stuff for now, until the UK activates the treaty (and for two subsequent years after the day we activate it) to depart the EU we still abide by all the same regulations and rules that we were bound by before the vote.

How our government handles this however will be the biggest question. Our chancellor has effectively threatened to implement a 'Punishment' budget which includes tax hikes and major cuts; although the chance of him getting this through parliament is effectively nil.

For me personally? I can expect my savings to depreciate to a degree due to the Stirling taking a dent in the short term however other than that its keep calm and carry on.

Its way too early to start calling anything though; our prime minister hasn't even emerged from No10. Until the flames die down no one knows where its headed and to what extent in the future things will change.

Lydia Lightfoot · **06-24-2016, 03:20 AM**

It's not at all comparable to a state secession from the USA. Although the states of the USA have a degree of autonomy they are all cemented together by the Federal government from day one.Â

A better comparison would be a withdrawal of a country from, say, NATO. Diminishes the whole, certainly, but to what extent is speculative, and barring a domino effect of other members following suit the organization and the departing member are both likely to adapt and carry on with, probably, only short-term impact to anyone.

Although such organizations hope members will never decide to leave, the framework exists to permit their departure if the call for departure occurs democratically (whereas, regardless of even a 90% popular approval on the part of a state's citizens in the USA, our Federal government would just sort of shrug a little).

Valence · **06-24-2016, 04:00 AM**

That's a lot deeper than a comparison with NATO. Although the UK isn't a signatory of all of the EU's treaties, like the Eurozone and Schengen zone, it's still part of many agreements, economical especially (for the most important, agriculture, and the monetary support for eastern Europe, which is measured in billions per years), and that's more than just withdrawing from a military alliance.Â We have to remember that the EU is more than just an union of agreements. It has a growing government and parliament, and is issuing a colossal amount of laws and regulations, and is progressively taking a more and more important part of each member nations governing autonomy.

Another issue remains that withdrawing from the EU is technically a black hole, because it's not taken into consideration in the foundings of the union proper. It's not forbidden mind you, but it has never really been taken into consideration. That will obviously not prevent it from happening, but it's a first.

Then once it's done you get the status of the country itself as major issue: it would leave UK like a country that has absolutely no agreements or deals with the EU whatsoever (to give a perspective, even Turkey has some of those). Not only would they require full visas to get in/out of territory, but all economic ties would be lost. To make a (very!) gross analogy for americans, it would be like Canada suddenly losing all ties and travel/economic agreements with the US, and becoming like Mexico. They would have to re-apply for all of that and that would take years. Nobody wants that and that's probably why they are willing to negociate a lot around it.

Then you have the issue of all the duties/benefits that the UK had to honour while in the EU, like the yearly financing for the lesser developped countries of the Union (like all of the new eastern Europe members, for whom ironically the UK was the biggest proponent, and these countries were strongly in favour of the Remain vote). Or like fishing quotas, etc. The UK would not have to pay for that anymore, and that would mean for the biggest contributors like Germany and France to give more to compensate among other things. The UK would also stop getting european subventions (like fishing, esp Scotland).

The biggest nightmare for everyone right now is to see independence movements being embolden by that move. Denmark for example, has grown quite anti Europe (not to the extent of the UK for now). People are afraid that could snowball. Internally in the UK as well, with europhiles like Scotland and Ireland.Â

Then you have all the speculation going, that is less about facts and more about predictions: the City of London losing progressively its central place on stockmarket and moving to the EU other hubs, the UK losing lots of growth over ten years without the EU behind, etc. Only time will tell. Maybe it's going to be the contrary, who knows.

And well, it's also a huge loss for the EU, which account for approximately right now around a quarter of the world's GNP and economy, by far the first. UK is a non negligible part of it.

On another note, we don't know how it's going to shift the powers inside the EU as well. The UK is close to the northern countries way of thinking, which are big proponent of free open trade. If the UK leaves, it will leave Scandinavian nations in an awkward and weakened position against the more centralistic views of the founders. There is also the language thing, perhaps. The UK gone, the only english speaking country left would be Malta. It is therefore possible that the (bastardized version of) english being the main language would be challenged by the french again, because Germany would be left without a strong excuse against it. All in all, for some countries, the UK was a much needed third player, for that they tend to see otherwise something that could be taken as a napoleonic nightmare.

______________

But I feel like doing a disservice to a very complicated matter with that gross summary here... with maybe inaccuracies. I would highly suggest finding a more exhaustive and factual source than my own europhile bias.

Valence · **06-24-2016, 04:36 AM**

Ah, "funnier" news:

- Spain didn't wait very long to "offer" to London to co-rule Gibraltar because Gibraltar has been voting massively for Remain, not to lose access to the EU market. They said that it would eventually lead to a return in spanish territory. I thought at first it was just a troll...

- Agreements made between France and UK for boundary/customs to be able to be done in Northern France to limit immigration to the UK, which was favorable for the UK and less so for France, have been put into question this morning. Some are pushing to remove them and push back the boundary where it's supposed to be. It might actually made immigration more problematic for the UK if it ever happens (the irony).

- The winning side has called for an Independence Day to be created!

V'aleera · **06-24-2016, 04:51 AM**

(06-24-2016, 04:36 AM)Valence Wrote: - The winning side has called for an Independence Day to be created!

If there's one thing the UK knows a lot about, it's countries declaring independence in the face of a pan-national monolith telling them it's in their best interest not to.

McBeefâ„¢ · **06-24-2016, 05:16 AM**

I think every sovereign nation should make the decisions that are best for it.

I hope this decision ends up working out well for Great Britain.

Grenat Querroux · **06-24-2016, 05:55 AM**

One thing worth adding to this, perhaps [edit: which Scarlet has already, but may as well underscore it] is that it will take years to disentangle the UK from the EU. Technically, the referendum has accomplished nothing in and of itself. It just made the popular will known. The UK government will have to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and initiate the whole process.

So, nothing actually changes overnight. The UK government could even theoretically refuse to act on the referendum, but of course that would be politically impossible. It can, however, take its time with implementation.

Going to follow the OP's request not to get polemical about this but I will say at least that it is hugely disappointing, to me. A victory for precisely the forces that ought not to be winning, on any side of the Atlantic or the English Channel.

Nebbs · **06-24-2016, 05:58 AM**

(06-24-2016, 05:55 AM)Grenat Querroux Wrote: One thing worth adding to this, perhaps, is that it will take years to disentangle the UK from the EU. Technically, the referendum has accomplished nothing in and of itself. It just made the popular will known. The UK government will have to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and initiate the whole process.

It will be so long that in fact it will be an entanglement shift as new entanglements arrive old ones start to go etc..

Avoiding any imperial entanglements, that's the real trick.

Kage · **06-24-2016, 08:33 AM**

Right now I'm just going to lightheartedly say "ok fuck I can't import anything from Japan now cause look at that yen to usd exchange rate"

***Maril*** · **06-24-2016, 08:36 AM**

Strange world to wake up to. I actually went to bed thinking that the remain side would catch up, but it wasn't so.Â
For me it's going to complicate my long-distance-relationship, which I am not too happy about. There's also a lot of talk suggesting that this might cause Denmark to have a vote next. They just please shouldn't call it Danxit because that sounds stupid >.<

I made a silly picture for it:

Show Content

Kellach Woods · **06-24-2016, 10:08 AM**

(06-24-2016, 08:36 AM)Nailah Wrote: They just please shouldn't call it Danxit because that sounds stupid >.<

Brexit sounded fucking stupid and that didn't stop them.

Other consequences: Scotland might be considering a second referendum.

Kage · **06-24-2016, 11:22 AM**

(06-24-2016, 10:08 AM)Kellach Woods Wrote:
(06-24-2016, 08:36 AM)Nailah Wrote: They just please shouldn't call it Danxit because that sounds stupid >.<

Brexit sounded fucking stupid and that didn't stop them.

Other consequences: Scotland might be considering a second referendum.

"Dexit"

Ireland is reconsidering reunification too.

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