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WELP. - Makyn Loneseeker - 11-24-2015

So I don't tend to be the one that doom mongers, and I don't actually really know the RPC's rules based on this... but I wanted to hear other peoples thoughts.
So... apparently Turkey shot down a Russian warplane.




Why is this not very good? Well lets start with why Russia is around Turkey in the first place. They're out in Syria bombing Daesh (and probably Syrian rebels but eh), and generally being jerks to the terrorist group. Turkey (liking it's sovereignty) warned Russia not to have its planes fly in its airspace. Today, and as Turkey calls it, they shot down a Russian fighter jet that had gone into its territory, before crashing somewhere down into Syria.

Again, why is this not very good? It's because Turkey is a NATO country. If Russia turns out to be a little more than salty at that and ends up in a war with Turkey, every other nation in NATO will suddenly be at war with Russia.

Anyway, I just wanted to hear others thoughts on this subject.

RE: WELP. - Unnamed Mercenary - 11-24-2015

There's no specific rule against Social/Political/Religous talk/discussion in the Off-Topic boards, but given the nature of the topic, there is a rule asking users to be respectful because threads like these are rather difficult to moderate and may be best left to other parts of the internet. Remember that the mods here are unpaid volunteers! And are people too.


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On a side note, fellow Americans, Daesh is what the rest of the world is calling ISIS. Because trying to use religion as an excuse for terrorism is lame.

RE: WELP. - Virella - 11-24-2015

As far as I've understood, they can kiss NATO support goodbye as they attacked first. Turkey knows damn well that Russia is just bombing the fuck out of ISIS, and not to mention the reports seem to show off that it got shot down above SYRIAN ground, not Turkish. Surely Russia had a part in it as well, but I cannot feel but Turkey just trying to cause drama at this point.

RE: WELP. - McBeefâ„¢ - 11-24-2015

I feel bad for the pilots. They landed on the Syrian side of the border and preliminary accounts are that they were executed by paramilitary forces there. 

War sucks.

RE: WELP. - Alphysian - 11-24-2015

Here's a related question for you: If someone told you to not put your foot over a line unless you want to lose it and you do so, with that person chopping your foot off... who's at fault?

RE: WELP. - McBeefâ„¢ - 11-24-2015

(11-24-2015, 01:50 PM)Alphysian Wrote: Here's a related question for you: If someone told you to not put your foot over a line unless you want to lose it and you do so, with that person chopping your foot off... who's at fault?

That's a very silly argument. There are ways to deal with airspace violations other than shooting them down.  

If someone told you that in real life, they're likely a psychopath. Even on borders like North Korea, or India/Pakistan, you won't get immediately shot if you go over the line.

RE: WELP. - McBeefâ„¢ - 11-24-2015

Anyway, to anyone on the sidelines. 

Russia prefers Assad to stay in power in Syria. 

Turkey backs ethnically turk paramilitary forces, and other free syrian rebels. Some of them are jihadists. Turkey doesn't like russia bombing jihadists in Syria, as russia is killing some ethnic turks. 

Because of this Turkey was itching for a chance to tell russia to fuck off with bombing close to it's border. Obviously both sides have a game to play, but I feel like Turkey acted rashly, and could have easily resolved this in other ways if it had wanted to. There was no danger to it's national security.

RE: WELP. - Caspar - 11-24-2015

Yeah I heard on the news yesterday that Russia's bombing killed some ISIS troops, but it killed several times that in civilians and even more Turkish-supported rebel forces. The Turks were definitely looking to retaliate, not that I can blame them.

RE: WELP. - Kage - 11-24-2015

(11-24-2015, 01:24 PM)Unnamed Mercenary Wrote: On a side note, fellow Americans, Daesh is what the rest of the world is calling ISIS. Because trying to use religion as an excuse for terrorism is lame.
I highly support the use of Daesh (for those horrible with pronunciations like I, it sounds something like "dice-SH') because calling it ISIS or ISIL or Islamic State just gives them way more legitimacy than they ever deserve (more than 0). It also serves as a big FUCK YOU to them in Daesh who consider it an insult. Also, I'm tired of Islamic being blamed for everything just as much as I'm tired of X religion being all against the QUILTBAG or -other-.

I'm waiting to see how this plays out. What will Russia do. I have been really busy but my initial reports were that Turkey hailed Russia's plane a few times in the 5 minutes it was going in and out of its territory to no response so that's when they blew it out of the sky.

I don't know enough on the Syrian war (it's got Daesh, Syrian Gov't-Assad, Syrian Opposition, Al-Qaeda's Sunni Front and Kurdish forces going on). Apparently the Kurdish forces are confirming that one of the pilots was killed by the Syrian opposition. I've read before that in terms of Syria, Turkey has been allowing Daesh much more free reign as they'll get rid of the Assad regime which sorta makes Turkey seem like accomplices. While Russia is OK with Assad (being the current 'government') Turkey is not, so I'm sure that had quite a bit to do with what happened here.

Does not help that the Russia plane was taken down and that is now being attributed to Daesh.

RE: WELP. - LiadansWhisper - 11-24-2015

(11-24-2015, 01:27 PM)Virella Wrote: As far as I've understood, they can kiss NATO support goodbye as they attacked first. Turkey knows damn well that Russia is just bombing the fuck out of ISIS, and not to mention the reports seem to show off that it got shot down above SYRIAN ground, not Turkish. Surely Russia had a part in it as well, but I cannot feel but Turkey just trying to cause drama at this point.

Russia has repeatedly violated Turkish airspace. In this incident, the plane in question was warned 10 times in five minutes that they were violating Turkish airspace. Turkey has warned Russia before that it will use force to protect their airspace.

Also, Russia has been mostly bombing Assad's opponents, not Daesh. In fact, they haven't bombed Daesh at all, according to the BBC (this map is from September, mind you Edit: I found an even better map that shows both US air strikes and Russian air strikes - note where the majority of Russian airstrikes are, and where the majority of US air strikes are, and who controls what.):

[Image: _85941170_syria_us_russian_airstrikes_624.png]

Please note the areas actually being bombed, and the areas Daesh actually controls or is fighting over.

Here's a link to the story that had the map in it: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34453739

RE: WELP. - Teadrinker - 11-24-2015

Report I read says the Russian jet ignored 10 warnings to get out of their airspace.

Think this is one of those things we'll never know the whole truth about and a lot of people might die senselessly over.

RE: WELP. - Zetchryn - 11-24-2015

I do have to agree with Turkey on this one... For once... How many times do you have to tell someone to get out before it's time to pull out the guns? Take someone who stumbles into your home. You tell them to get out. If they don't, you repeat. If they stay, you remove them by force.

RE: WELP. - C'kayah Polaali - 11-24-2015

Russia's denying that Turkey tried to warn them away.

In any case, according to the map Turkey's showing around, it's not really the equivalent of someone stumbling into your home. It's more like they took a shortcut by stepping on a corner of your property. Assuming that Turkey's map is correct, the Russian jet would have been in Turkish airspace for something like 12 seconds.

Show Content

What's interesting about this is the video Turkey released showing the plane falling. It's very high quality, very stable, and starts moments after the Russian jet was hit. I don't have a horse in this particular race, but I have been a student of the region (and Russia) for a long time, and it looks to me like this is something that Turkey expected to do and prepared to do.

One thing that makes this especially interesting is the aircraft Russia stationed at their new base in Syria: They have Su-25s and Mi-24s, which are exactly the sort of thing you'd expect for bombing rebels in the hills. But they also have Su-24 and Su-34 interdictors, which aren't really what you'd expect to see. Both are supersonic bombers designed to scoot in fast and low and hit hardened targets. But they also stationed Su-30SM fighters, too. Su-30s can operate as strike aircraft, but it's a poor use for them. What they're made for is air to air combat, and the Syrian rebels have no aircraft.

My theory is that Russia is positioning itself to be a regional power in the middle east. Turkey, who's long seen itself as the regional power in the area, clearly is opposed to this, especially since Russia supports Assad. Russia is no stranger to power plays in the middle east, and it shows, because those Su-30s are clearly aimed at Turkey's air force.

RE: WELP. - Caspar - 11-24-2015

I hope for everyone's sake they just wanted to show off the Su-30's kulbit.
Though admittedly it could be an intimidation tactic intended to keep NATO from providing rebels air support against Syria.

RE: WELP. - McBeefâ„¢ - 11-24-2015

(11-24-2015, 07:05 PM)Setoh Aliapoh Wrote: Russia's denying that Turkey tried to warn them away.

In any case, according to the map Turkey's showing around, it's not really the equivalent of someone stumbling into your home. It's more like they took a shortcut by stepping on a corner of your property. Assuming that Turkey's map is correct, the Russian jet would have been in Turkish airspace for something like 12 seconds.

Show Content


What's interesting about this is the video Turkey released showing the plane falling. It's very high quality, very stable, and starts moments after the Russian jet was hit. I don't have a horse in this particular race, but I have been a student of the region (and Russia) for a long time, and it looks to me like this is something that Turkey expected to do and prepared to do.

One thing that makes this especially interesting is the aircraft Russia stationed at their new base in Syria: They have Su-25s and Mi-24s, which are exactly the sort of thing you'd expect for bombing rebels in the hills. But they also have Su-24 and Su-34 interdictors, which aren't really what you'd expect to see. Both are supersonic bombers designed to scoot in fast and low and hit hardened targets. But they also stationed Su-30SM fighters, too. Su-30s can operate as strike aircraft, but it's a poor use for them. What they're made for is air to air combat, and the Syrian rebels have no aircraft.

My theory is that Russia is positioning itself to be a regional power in the middle east. Turkey, who's long seen itself as the regional power in the area, clearly is opposed to this, especially since Russia supports Assad. Russia is no stranger to power plays in the middle east, and it shows, because those Su-30s are clearly aimed at Turkey's air force.

Yeah it really seems like political posturing. 

I think that's why Russia is backing Assad in force here, they need him, his regime, and Syria as a base of operations for further power projection. Russia doesn't have aircraft carriers so it needs physical land. That's why they're focusing their bombing on both ISIS and the Free Syrians, since they are both threats to Assad. 

Turkey obviously doesn't want a newly aggressive Russia at its doorstep, so they're doing their best to tell Russia to fuck off without an overt act of war. It's pretty clear Turkey was waiting for a chance like this, and the filming means that they're not embarrassed by it. They want russia to get the message loud and clear. 

What's unclear is if Russia sent the plane there on purpose to send a message of their own, which if true would be pretty shitty, as they basically just sent two people to their deaths. 

Either way, what comes next will be interesting. It seems from the way this played out that NATO wasn't informed of this, and that Turkey has done it on their own.