So the latest overview for those of you not following the news in the UK,
Our PM has resigned, although his departure won't be until the ruling party conference in October in order to try provide stability and transition to a new PM who will lead the UK in its renegotiation and departure from the EU. He has explicitly stated he will not be activating article 50 himself. Which means it'll be three months until that two year period begins at the earliest.
The Leave campaign is certainly not looking to activate article 50 anytime soon; they fully intend to handle as much negotiation and sort the framework of an independent UK before activating anything. In contrast the EU has stated they want the UK to do it as quickly as possible; although they've no ability to force the UK out until it decides. Bare in mind the UK retains its veto and voice in the EU until article 50 is activated; then we lose both.
The current timescale being ball parked by the leave campaign is activating article 50 some time in 2018, which would mean we'd leave the EU in 2020. IF this remains the plan who knows.
Scotland's SNP (Scottish National Party) is looking to depart the UK and join the EU. The first minister for Scotland fully intends to talk to all the EU countries to try get an idea if they will be able to join if they did leave. Its worth while noting however the UK Referendum is just that, the UK referendum. It wasn't the Scottish/Northern Irish/Welsh/English referendum; will they legally be able to claim a second referendum? Who knows, let alone win it. Despite all of Scotland technically declaring for a remain vote almost every Scottish voting area was within 10%ish of the 50/50 mark. Some of the areas were as little was 0.9% difference between leave/remain having the most votes.
Northern Ireland is something too difficult to guess; the history of Northern Ireland will make any attempt to unify the two potentially a very bloody affair. Unionists and Nationalists are both extremely unlikely to yield willingly, especially with only 10%ish of the vote swaying in favour of remain. In my opinion what the UK negotiates with Ireland will decide if this is pursued or not. Hard border controls (passport, customs, immigration ect) will certainly prompt it if implemented, even then expect conflict.
Gibraltar has already had its sovereignty reaffirmed by the government which has declared it has no intentions of yielding the rock or entering into any sort of 'sharing' deal with Spain. Not only does it serve as a strategic military position but it also shares a similar feeling with the Falkland Islands, of which Argentina has tried many times (Famously waging war in an attempt) to secure them. The feeling on the rock is very much of rising to the challenge according to the news.
At the moment the main priority for everyone is settling down the financial sector and this is being echoed by all financial institutions who are seeking clarity on the economic plan. The Bank of England, IMF and US Banking sector are working hard to stabilise the situation, its worth noting since the last big financial crashes all banks have had to prepare and drill contingency plans for catastrophic circumstances far beyond what we're currently experiencing. Now is the test to see if they pay off in reality.
Regarding the call for a second referendum with a higher majority required to leave the EU happening....
The chance of it happening is like soloing Nidhogg EX. Its not going to happen, the political consequences of a second vote would be massive and go against the nature of democracy. It's always been quite clearly stated in the UK that it was a once only affair.
TLDR;
The UK and its territories are currently wounded and its going to take a helluva lot of healing both politically, financially and among the population as we deal with the fallout. Don't expect any big decisions soon.
Our PM has resigned, although his departure won't be until the ruling party conference in October in order to try provide stability and transition to a new PM who will lead the UK in its renegotiation and departure from the EU. He has explicitly stated he will not be activating article 50 himself. Which means it'll be three months until that two year period begins at the earliest.
The Leave campaign is certainly not looking to activate article 50 anytime soon; they fully intend to handle as much negotiation and sort the framework of an independent UK before activating anything. In contrast the EU has stated they want the UK to do it as quickly as possible; although they've no ability to force the UK out until it decides. Bare in mind the UK retains its veto and voice in the EU until article 50 is activated; then we lose both.
The current timescale being ball parked by the leave campaign is activating article 50 some time in 2018, which would mean we'd leave the EU in 2020. IF this remains the plan who knows.
Scotland's SNP (Scottish National Party) is looking to depart the UK and join the EU. The first minister for Scotland fully intends to talk to all the EU countries to try get an idea if they will be able to join if they did leave. Its worth while noting however the UK Referendum is just that, the UK referendum. It wasn't the Scottish/Northern Irish/Welsh/English referendum; will they legally be able to claim a second referendum? Who knows, let alone win it. Despite all of Scotland technically declaring for a remain vote almost every Scottish voting area was within 10%ish of the 50/50 mark. Some of the areas were as little was 0.9% difference between leave/remain having the most votes.
Northern Ireland is something too difficult to guess; the history of Northern Ireland will make any attempt to unify the two potentially a very bloody affair. Unionists and Nationalists are both extremely unlikely to yield willingly, especially with only 10%ish of the vote swaying in favour of remain. In my opinion what the UK negotiates with Ireland will decide if this is pursued or not. Hard border controls (passport, customs, immigration ect) will certainly prompt it if implemented, even then expect conflict.
Gibraltar has already had its sovereignty reaffirmed by the government which has declared it has no intentions of yielding the rock or entering into any sort of 'sharing' deal with Spain. Not only does it serve as a strategic military position but it also shares a similar feeling with the Falkland Islands, of which Argentina has tried many times (Famously waging war in an attempt) to secure them. The feeling on the rock is very much of rising to the challenge according to the news.
At the moment the main priority for everyone is settling down the financial sector and this is being echoed by all financial institutions who are seeking clarity on the economic plan. The Bank of England, IMF and US Banking sector are working hard to stabilise the situation, its worth noting since the last big financial crashes all banks have had to prepare and drill contingency plans for catastrophic circumstances far beyond what we're currently experiencing. Now is the test to see if they pay off in reality.
Regarding the call for a second referendum with a higher majority required to leave the EU happening....
The chance of it happening is like soloing Nidhogg EX. Its not going to happen, the political consequences of a second vote would be massive and go against the nature of democracy. It's always been quite clearly stated in the UK that it was a once only affair.
TLDR;
The UK and its territories are currently wounded and its going to take a helluva lot of healing both politically, financially and among the population as we deal with the fallout. Don't expect any big decisions soon.
