The three nations are at war, who wins?

[Kage]

I saw this discussion on reddit and I'd love to see what the RP community thinks. :3

 

[TheLastCandle]

The Empire. Divided we fall.

[Melkire]

I find it laughable that the top comment is "No one wins, but Ul'dah probably loses." Objectively speaking, I'd say Gridania probably loses. Second-smallest population, if I'm not mistaken (if it's third, they're even worse off), and their force of lancers, archers and conjurers are, as stated in the reddit thread, best suited to a defensive action (likewise for the Elementals). If you're always on the defensive and on the backfoot... you're eventually going to lose, even if you outlast a thousand sieges. 

 

And the whole "Limsa can blockade the mainland nations" idea is also laughable given that the only source of oversea shipping is Limsa by de facto position as dominant force on Vylbrand. I'm sorry, what's that? We're not getting supplies from Vylbrand anymore? Oh well, we'll take the hits to prices and go looking on the mainland for substitute products.

 

Objectively speaking, Limsa probably has the best chance at coming out on top, but only due to political instability within the Syndicate and due to the nature of the Gridanian forces.

 

Twelve forbid what's left of the Syndicate bands together after the cowards have cut and run; Ul'dah would tear the other two nations to shreds.

 

 

 

EDIT: If we're throwing Ishgard and the Garlean Empire into it... Ishgard may have the martial clout to win through. The Empire stands no real chance if the Alliance comes together to oppose it (Warriors of Light were only instrumental in countering the Ascian and Allagan pieces on the board; several manned castrums still stand after the latest MSQs).

 

EDIT 2: If Balmung Frontlines is any indication, Maelstrom wins. Almost Every. Gods. Damned. Time. Occasional victory to the Adders.

[Warren Castille]

It would come down to who's invading who. Limsa's an island, and they have a dominant naval force. Taking the fight to them would be a fool's errand. Similarly, any invading force trying to march into the Shroud is going to run into some pretty spectacular issues. Ul'dah's really the only one without a real "defense" unless you count being surrounded by cliffs and desert, which would make it easy to see oncoming forces and potentially wear out those not used to the climate.

 

Politically it would be interesting. I could see the Syndicate using all of this turmoil to establish martial order over the Sultana since she'd likely be seeking a peaceable solution and war is always best for business.

 

Oh, I just realized: Isn't Cid's main research in Ul'dah? Can we count him as an asset? Because hooboy, that's a big one.

 

Quick, someone hash out a map and some quick and dirty rules for Risk: Eorzea.

[Aya]

It doesn't seem to me like any of them could beat another... even two against one it seems unlikely.  Ul'dahn forces in a hostile Shroud?  Sailors trying to besiege a desert fortress?  Woodsmen trying to attack an island protected by the only navy in the land?

 

I don't see this working for anyone :-]

 

Border skirmishes are a lot more likely, and there it's anyone's game I'd imagine.

[Crisiet]

The Empire. Divided we fall.

 

^ This.

[Melkire]

It would come down to who's invading who. Limsa's an island, and they have a dominant naval force. Taking the fight to them would be a fool's errand. Similarly, any invading force trying to march into the Shroud is going to run into some pretty spectacular issues. Ul'dah's really the only one without a real "defense" unless you count being surrounded by cliffs and desert, which would make it easy to see oncoming forces and potentially wear out those not used to the climate.

 

Politically it would be interesting. I could see the Syndicate using all of this turmoil to establish martial order over the Sultana since she'd likely be seeking a peaceable solution and war is always best for business.

 

Oh, I just realized: Isn't Cid's main research in Ul'dah? Can we count him as an asset? Because hooboy, that's a big one.

 

Quick, someone hash out a map and some quick and dirty rules for Risk: Eorzea.

 

Garlond Ironworks? I thought he relocated his business to Revenant's Toll. His apprentices were there, last I saw them (haven't started 2.3 MSQ content yet).

 

Here's Risk: Eorzea for you in a nutshell: Limsa is Australia.

[Crisiet]

Cid relocated to Mor Dhona, yeah. 

 

Honestly, were it just the three nations, Limsa Lominsa would win purely because they'd be so damned difficult to launch an offensive against.

 

Really though, the empire would just come back and roflstomp all over them once the conflict had weakened them enough.

[Unnamed Mercenary]

Cid relocated to Mor Dhona, yeah. 

 

Honestly, were it just the three nations, Limsa Lominsa would win purely because they'd be so damned difficult to launch an offensive against.

 

Really though, the empire would just come back and roflstomp all over them once the conflict had weakened them enough.

 

That's how the empire got Ala Mhigo! (Besides the Ala Mhigan king being a powerhungry monster, iirc). Some nice convincing of "don't you want to stop fighting" adding to "look at our military!" seemed to work well.

[Warren Castille]

I can see it now.

 

One thousand years after declaring war on one another, the three nations sit idly by waiting for the first casualty. Ul'dah has reinforced its walls waiting for invasion, Limsa's navy has been sitting with cannons pointed waiting for a force to move, and the Gridanians are sipping tea with the elementals.

 

War is hell.

[Melkire]

On that note, Ul'dah's greatest weakness isn't its divided government.

 

It's the fact that the closest source of fresh water (the river) is outside the city walls and does not at any point run through the city itself. The Jewel of the Desert is, ironically, the most vulnerable to siege. That said, with as large a standing military force as the Flames are supposed to be, I don't know how either of the other two Eorzean city-states would manage that.

 

The Empire probably could, if they devoted enough manpower to the task.

 

...neither Limsa nor Gridania has this sort of strategic liability.

[Unnamed Mercenary]

I can see it now.

 

One thousand years after declaring war on one another, the three nations sit idly by waiting for the first casualty. Ul'dah has reinforced its walls waiting for invasion, Limsa's navy has been sitting with cannons pointed waiting for a force to move, and the Gridanians are sipping tea with the elementals.

 

War is hell.

 

...Can I get tea time with the Elementals. They seem a friendly sort when their trees aren't being burned down by little kids.

[111]

I agree with Aya, no side has the resources to actually win.

 

Everyone lacks the ability to actually take a great land power like Ul'dah. Everyone lacks the ability to somehow counter the elementals, and everyone lacks the ability to mount a naval operation against Limsa.

 

I think Ul'dah has the highest chance of eventually winning due to it's high (and increasing) modernization. They have trains, cerulean mines, mass production, and the money to fund mercenaries.

 

Like I said earlier though, it would likely just be skirmishing that would end in a treaty favorable to one side or the other. In other words, exactly what is happening on the Cartenau flats.

[Dogberry]

Historically, a naval based force will always beat a land based force.

 

However, I wouldn't count Gridania out. They have an entire forest they can use that they know better than anyone else, and can wage guerilla warfare on anyone foolish enough to invade. If Gridania is smart, and they are, they'll let The Shroud do most of their fighting for them.

[Crisiet]

Historically, a naval based force will always beat a land based force.

 

However, I wouldn't count Gridania out. They have an entire forest they can use that they know better than anyone else, and can wage guerilla warfare on anyone foolish enough to invade. If Gridania is smart, and they are, they'll let The Shroud do most of their fighting for them.

 

Literally. Them elementals are powerful, yo.

[Unnamed Mercenary]

Post-Calamity elementals are weakened though. This would be the perfect opportunity to attack Gridania. Now if this was 1.0 setting....people invading the forest would be...umm..well, eaten by trees.

[Kage]

Historically, a naval based force will always beat a land based force.

This is what I've learned from Civ 5.

 

Um.

 

I think they'd all go bankrupt trying to beat each other down. Who would come out for the worst? I believe Ul'dah is the most likely to be most disadvantaged. Wealth and power can only hold so much if your resources have dwindled and starving.

[Melkire]

Historically, a naval based force will always beat a land based force.

 

However, I wouldn't count Gridania out. They have an entire forest they can use that they know better than anyone else, and can wage guerilla warfare on anyone foolish enough to invade. If Gridania is smart, and they are, they'll let The Shroud do most of their fighting for them.

 

To amend that: historically speaking, a force supported by a navy will usually beat a force not supported by a navy.

 

The further inland a naval-based force has to strike, the worse off they are. Their advantage only counts where they can use it: on the water and near the coasts. What determines the advantage in an inland conflict is, more often than not, air superiority. This is discounting discussion of supply lines, of course. It gets tricky there, because then you have to get into the nitty gritty of who has what and where and for how long and how vulnerable and yadda yadda yadda.

 

This all gets thrown up in the air when considering the offensive actions against and the defensive actions of an island state. Britain, WWII.

 

Of course, environmental conditions also contributed to Britain's defense. Those with the home ground have the advantage. See also: Russia vs. Napolean and Russia vs. Hitler.

[Warren Castille]

Barring the seemingly-agreed-upon skirmish battle treaty conclusion, I think the only safe bet is to say that whomever acts as the aggressor loses. There's argument to be made that Limsa could invade and take Ul'dah, but that's still got a lot of variables.

[Crisiet]

Post calamity elementals might be weakened, but they're still a force to be reckoned with and they're angry as hells, apparently. 

 

Between the three I still vote Limsa though. If anything, they'd sit back and outlast the other two.

 

 

 

But my money would always be on the empire in this situation anyway.

[111]

Historically, a naval based force will always beat a land based force.

 

I wouldn't agree.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peloponnesian_War

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punic_Wars

 

I would say that a Naval based force can rarely lose to a land based force, because there is no way for the land based troops to fight it. Likewise control of the sea doesn't help you much if you don't have the offensive land troops needed. See world war II for an example.

 

Sea based forces can only win when they bring a land force capable of defeating the enemy land force. Sea allows you to move force around faster, but against a concentrated city state like Ul'dah that doesn't matter. Also it's stated that the currents of vesper bay changed with the calamity, which is why there are no large ships there. So Limsa wouldn't be able to say, shell the city from the sea.

[Zyrusticae]

I find it laughable that the top comment is "No one wins, but Ul'dah probably loses." Objectively speaking, I'd say Gridania probably loses. Second-smallest population, if I'm not mistaken (if it's third, they're even worse off), and their force of lancers, archers and conjurers are, as stated in the reddit thread, best suited to a defensive action (likewise for the Elementals). If you're always on the defensive and on the backfoot... you're eventually going to lose, even if you outlast a thousand sieges. 

I don't buy this.

 

The nature of the landscape of Eorzea means that Gridania is simply the richest in terms of natural resources. This, coupled with their absolutely insurmountable defensive terrain advantage, in addition to the aid of the Elementals, the Sylphs if they decide to pitch in, and the Padjal (who are all White Mages, which, I should remind you, is the single most powerful form of magick in all of Hydaelyn), means they could easily force any invading force out with minimal losses.

 

Hell, just think about what they're surrounded by - you have to cross either a desert or a massive frozen tundra just to reach them! By the time you get there, you will have to be maintaining massive supply lines while the Gridanians have virtually limitless supplies thanks to the bounty of the forest.

 

Explain to me how they would "lose", somehow, just because they don't need to leave their forest at any one point in time. I'm pretty sure convincing everyone else that they are untouchable after losing hundreds or thousands of troops in a single battle would be enough of a victory that they would win by default, simply by virtue of sustaining the fewest losses. It doesn't matter if someone EVENTUALLY wins a thousand years later if they sustained a thousand times more losses in the process of achieving that so-called "victory".

[111]

I find it laughable that the top comment is "No one wins, but Ul'dah probably loses." Objectively speaking, I'd say Gridania probably loses. Second-smallest population, if I'm not mistaken (if it's third, they're even worse off), and their force of lancers, archers and conjurers are, as stated in the reddit thread, best suited to a defensive action (likewise for the Elementals). If you're always on the defensive and on the backfoot... you're eventually going to lose, even if you outlast a thousand sieges. 

I don't buy this.

 

The nature of the landscape of Eorzea means that Gridania is simply the richest in terms of natural resources. This, coupled with their absolutely insurmountable defensive terrain advantage, in addition to the aid of the Elementals, the Sylphs if they decide to pitch in, and the Padjal (who are all White Mages, which, I should remind you, is the single most powerful form of magick in all of Hydaelyn), means they could easily force any invading force out with minimal losses.

 

Hell, just think about what they're surrounded by - you have to cross either a desert or a massive frozen tundra just to reach them! By the time you get there, you will have to be maintaining massive supply lines while the Gridanians have virtually limitless supplies thanks to the bounty of the forest.

 

Explain to me how they would "lose", somehow, just because they don't need to leave their forest at any one point in time. I'm pretty sure convincing everyone else that they are untouchable after losing hundreds or thousands of troops in a single battle would be enough of a victory that they would win by default, simply by virtue of sustaining the fewest losses. It doesn't matter if someone EVENTUALLY wins a thousand years later if they sustained a thousand times more losses in the process of achieving that so-called "victory".

 

The syndicate gives gives a bounty to anyone who starts a fire in the forest. Ul'dah gives incindiary devices to the refugees and gives them food to plant them in the forest. Limsa sets up trebuchets and lobs barrels of flaming oil into the shroud.

 

The only way to control gridania would be to tear down the shroud first. It wouldn't be impossible, and it would work eventually, unless Gridania came out of the shroud to stop it, and negated many of their advantages.

[Melkire]

I find it laughable that the top comment is "No one wins, but Ul'dah probably loses." Objectively speaking, I'd say Gridania probably loses. Second-smallest population, if I'm not mistaken (if it's third, they're even worse off), and their force of lancers, archers and conjurers are, as stated in the reddit thread, best suited to a defensive action (likewise for the Elementals). If you're always on the defensive and on the backfoot... you're eventually going to lose, even if you outlast a thousand sieges. 

I don't buy this.

 

The nature of the landscape of Eorzea means that Gridania is simply the richest in terms of natural resources. This, coupled with their absolutely insurmountable defensive terrain advantage, in addition to the aid of the Elementals, the Sylphs if they decide to pitch in, and the Padjal (who are all White Mages, which, I should remind you, is the single most powerful form of magick in all of Hydaelyn), means they could easily force any invading force out with minimal losses.

 

Hell, just think about what they're surrounded by - you have to cross either a desert or a massive frozen tundra just to reach them! By the time you get there, you will have to be maintaining massive supply lines while the Gridanians have virtually limitless supplies thanks to the bounty of the forest.

 

Explain to me how they would "lose", somehow, just because they don't need to leave their forest at any one point in time. I'm pretty sure convincing everyone else that they are untouchable after losing hundreds or thousands of troops in a single battle would be enough of a victory that they would win by default, simply by virtue of sustaining the fewest losses. It doesn't matter if someone EVENTUALLY wins a thousand years later if they sustained a thousand times more losses in the process of achieving that so-called "victory".

 

Rephrase: Gridania doesn't win. They can turtle up and survive, sure, but they lack both the technology and manpower to take the offensive against either of the other two city-states.

 

As for the "bounty of the forest"... I'm not even going to touch the "burn the Shroud down to the ground" argument or scorched-earth policy other than to bring them up, though where one would get enough firepower for that (akin to Bahamut) is questionable (hello, Omega).

 

 

EDIT: Never mind, Nat did it for me.

[Warren Castille]

Explain to me how they would "lose", somehow, just because they don't need to leave their forest at any one point in time.

 

It isn't that they don't need to, it's that they CAN'T. Maybe we're all misunderstanding but we all seem to be fairly certain that the strongest fighting force Grid would have would be the elementals defending the shroud. They'd be forced to turtle up; Once they set foot out of their land, they'd be run afoul by either cannonfire or an allegedly-superior military force.

 

Ul'dah wouldn't need to invade. They could amass their resources and, using what's on hand and scraps of the empire, just create giant threshers to slowly destroy the Shroud itself. The Padjals might be teeming with powerful magic, but Ul'dah's the only place in Eorzea where you can learn to throw fire with your mind. I'm imagining huge, sweeping warmachines and buzzsaws, complete deforestation and squads of black mages cutting and burning. Eventually, and it might take a sea of spilled blood, the Shroud would be reduced enough that the REAL fighting could begin.

 

Arguably, that could stand to small benefit Gridania; Without the treecover, their archers could be of some use in defense. I'd like to think that the massive morale blow that comes from your homeland being turned to ash over a generation or three would do the bulk of the heavy lifting, though.

 

Edit: Dammit Nat and also Melkire.