ELIA: UK Referendum

[Momo]

Is there no chance that this could come to peace between all parties? There is a petition to Parliament already at enough signatures to be seen, though I am certain they can just drop it after looking at it for one second.

 

If immigration rules can be reconsidered for each individual nation, and Scottland be allowed back in, perhaps some reason could be seen to help settle much of the EU? The pound's dropping worth is also something I feel they should consider, since the EU has been doing so well by world standards since its creation.

 

As someone who has always appreciated the cultural differences of the European countries, and their ability to, when needed, work things out in the recent lifetimes, I would hate to see that standard be broken in this manner.

 

(To be clear, I am of the US, so I am mostly asking what can be done, if anything, to help resolve this)

[Valence]

Is there no chance that this could come to peace between all parties? There is a petition to Parliament already at enough signatures to be seen, though I am certain they can just drop it after looking at it for one second.

 

If immigration rules can be reconsidered for each individual nation, and Scottland be allowed back in, perhaps some reason could be seen to help settle much of the EU? The pound's dropping worth is also something I feel they should consider, since the EU has been doing so well by world standards since its creation.

 

As someone who has always appreciated the cultural differences of the European countries, and their ability to, when needed, work things out in the recent lifetimes, I would hate to see that standard be broken in this manner.

 

(To be clear, I am of the US, so I am mostly asking what can be done, if anything, to help resolve this)

 

I'm not totally sure where you are getting at so my apologies in advance if I understood wrongly...

 

In any case, on immigration, the thing with the UK is that the country is not integrated at the same level than say, founding nations (Germany, France, Italy, Benelux). They are not part of the eurozone, not part of the free move Schengen zone (unlike Iceland by the way, which is not even a member and that is funny), and the latter means that immigration has always been controled as the UK saw it fit rather than to the european letter. They had deals with France in the north of the country so that they could directly exert that level of control here, upstream, before they get on the island proper.

 

All in all, immigration in the EU has been pretty much left to every member unlike many other things, and most countries are doing a bit what they want on the matter, as we have seen with the recent fiasco around all the Middle East refugees (the opposition between northern countries that did what they could to welcome the most of it, and eastern and southern Europe that groaned a lot not to do it, or outright closed their borders like Hungary).

 

For Scotland being allowed back in, it's... an incredibly arduous process: you already need two years to enact article 50 to leave the Union. That article has never been used up until now and was actually rushed in haste into the existing Lisbon Accords when the EU constitution was scrapped due to various referendums 10 years ago (in Ireland, France, etc... well I can only speak for France where that constitution was deemed way too liberal/capitalistic for most people). So it means it will be even harder since it will be the first time with the UK. The UK are also waiting for their next Prime Minister to enact it, which delays the thing even further.

 

At the same time we have Scotland that wants a new referendum because, quoting Sturgeon "The priority is on the interests of Scotland and they don't want to leave the EU against their will, due to someone else decision". We don't even know where this is going, but if Westminster even allows that to begin with, then you might agree that an independence process for them might take a bit of time too. They have to first leave the UK, then join back the EU. Not a small feat, you will agree.

 

Then comes the other major hurdle, which is getting back into the EU. Because willingly or not, Scotland will have in essence left the Union, and like the UK, will have to start negotiating back all those agreements from scratch, and even more in their case, they will have to actually apply to be a member again. Those applications takes a lot of years, or decades sometimes. I'm sure it can be sped up a little bit since they were already part of it, but you see the issue. That's the bureaucratic side of the giant that the EU administration has turned into.

 

So it's only the beginning and I'm afraid that to have answers, we will have to wait a certain amount of years/time now, because nobody really knows where all of this is going...

[Nebbs]

When all is said and done this will either bring us (UK) together or apart. The past 5+ years have been difficult, and it is always easy to find differences.

 

We here on these isles are used to backing the underdog, we love a challenge, and we are resilient in the face of threats.

 

The way out of this is together, and not every one for themselves.

 

We (yes we the whole UK) voted to leave the EU, the challenge now is how that happens without making us apart from Europe, and without turning inward on ourselves.

 

tyaEQEmt5ls

 

[Rusty Knight]

The sun rises, its D-Day+1 and the world is still in a bit of shock.

 

I think its worthwhile mentioning a specific point which is the extent of the victory of 'Leave' over 'Remain' and the consequences this holds.

 

Leave: 51.9%

Remain:48.1%

 

The closeness of the vote, despite Leave having won the election will play a major role (I foresee) in the negotiation process. Whilst it is indisputable no matter the argument made by individuals wanting a second vote (See European Union Referendum Act 2015) that the UK has voted to leave the European Union; what level of association it may have with the 27 Member bloc as possibly a partner country is up for grabs. (Note: Germany has already stated the UK as an Associated Partner Country is the ideal outcome)

 

The majority of elected members of Parliament (MP) are avid EU supporters and the legislation that will be passed and negotiations that feature with the EU will unmistakably involve their input, considerably. Striking a balance in negotiations that fulfill the desires of both leave and remain will be critical.

 

Could this mean the UK rejoins the Single Market? Possibly, however this would be highly contested as it would again close off the UK's ability to create trade deals externally. A major campaigning point for a 'Global UK' that was used by Leave. Plus the legislation that is cited as red tape stems from the Single Market. (Reality Check: for the UK to continue trading with EU countries our goods still need to meet all European criteria to be traded)

 

Could this mean the UK adopts the free movement of people? (Schengen) The answer to this one is its extremely unlikely. The UK wasn't a full member of Schengen before the referendum and the appetite for it is still non-existent. We in the UK are fairly unanimous that we want border controls maintained.

 

What it could mean however... is that the UK negotiates to maintain its current variation of Schengen. Which means passport controls and checks are still enforced to UK standards however visa free travel ect remain free and open to all European Citizens. (Note, by not being a member of the single market, AFAIK this means the UK would not have to accept the free movement of peoples in relation to work. Which would satisfy the concerns regarding unlimited migration to the UK which was a key point in the campaign.)

 

On Northern Ireland

 

The First Minister for Northern Ireland has already made clear that until both religious elements in Northern Ireland express indisputable desire to join the Republic then a borders vote is out of the question. It is also been stated that hard border controls will be opposed at every turn. To reference the UK maintaining its current variation of Schengen, the Republic of Ireland utilises an /identical/ variation which has always allowed Irish and UK citizens to move back and forth freely, without the need for border controls.

 

I think that point makes the possibility of us maintaining free movement in some movement with the EU Bloc very high. The appetite both by the remain camp and political economical needs is there.

 

On Scotland

 

It is important to recognise that an independent Scotland whilst predominant in the news as a possibility, is a long way off. The SNP must first build a case as to why Scotland, who voted not two years past to remain a member of the United Kingdom suddenly wants to no longer be a member of the United Kingdom because of a UK wide referendum.

 

How does this affect the wider world? Quite simply even if Scotland can make a case and have a referendum approved in Westminster, it'll take around two years for the vote to happen from that date. Then Scotland will depart the Union and have to fend for itself whilst it applies to become a member of the European Union; a lengthy process in itself.

 

All the while the UK will still be recovering and establishing its place once more in the world; whilst Scotland in comparison will be seeing a second coming of current events with very little support. Not to say it won't happen, but its a while off yet.

 

Trade Trade Trade

 

The interest in trade deals is already beginning to come in now the results are out. Canada, the United States and Ghana being the three noted ones at the current time. The TTIP (Proposed trade agreement between the USA and EU) is currently slowing down due to resistance in the EU and its been noted that negotiating a trade deal of some form with the UK alone would be far less time consuming and complex due to a close relationship. There would still be barriers to cross however two countries coming to an agreement rather than 28 is obviously easier.

 

Its a long way off but in the future, depending on whats decided our American and Canadian friends may find buying and selling things the UK gets much cheaper and easier. Maybe travel will get thrown in there too for visa-less.

 

Isn't the UK Currency getting smashed?

 

For those of you with assets in Stirling; or well any currency around the world you'll be well aware of the hit that Brexit has given the world economy. Even Asia was rushing liquid assets into the market to stabilise the situation with damage control worldwide in full effect.

 

The FTSE 100 (UK Stock Exchange) lost significant ground, however the pound rallied past levels it had dropped to in Feburary. The FTSE 100 then closed on a weekly high, 2.4% higher then it was last Friday and the best performance in 4 months.

 

Give it a month or two and the Stirling will be back around its normal levels.

 

A drop in Stirling Value isn't all bad...

 

For those of you wanting to purchase goods in the UK now is the time. With the depreciation in Stirling UK Exports are much more competitive and have seen a boom since the Brexit result. Pharmaceuticals have been making even /more/ profits then usual.

[Grenat Querroux]

The way out of this is together' date=' and not every one for themselves.[/quote']

 

No small irony inheres there.

 

All the while the UK will still be recovering and establishing its place once more in the world; whilst Scotland in comparison will be seeing a second coming of current events with very little support. Not to say it won't happen' date=' but its a while off yet.[/quote']

 

I'm not sure about 'very little support'. Sturgeon is not unaware of all this, has been lobbying the EU member states for special consideration as early as today, and there is a lot of incentive for the EU to accommodate her in the way that they would not, say, accommodate Erdogan's Turkey. It is a little early to make firm bets, but I would not discount Scottish independence on the back of this, in the medium-term.

 

With regard to consequences in trade, it is of course true that a lower currency boosts exports, but the UK is not an exporting country, a few sectors like pharmaceuticals aside. The British economy is (to the tune of some three quarters of GDP) service-based, and trade in services with the EU is going to become very complicated because as you pointed out it is impossible for the UK to join the EEA and restore free movement. Shifts in confidence and credit ratings affect it disproportionately, too, and here we are this morning with Moody's cutting outlook. You cite the FTSE 100 rallying somewhat from its immediate descent, but it is weighted toward companies that can count on overseas revenue, and notably includes mining companies, which always benefit from the flight to gold in the face of financial disaster. A better measure would be the FTSE 250, which is more dependent on UK revenue and remains funereal, and of course the banks themselves, lopped off by a third.

 

The UK will not become an international pariah over this, and certainly, bilateral trade deals will be concluded quickly enough. However, the UK has nowhere near the leverage in such negotiations that the giant European market does, and so the agreements, while less time consuming, are likely to be less favourable. For all the warm talk from the Americans and Canadians about historical ties and special relationships, they are likely to be quite hard-nosed about this. Overall investment in the UK is likely to go down, simply because a lot of businesses are averse to uncertainty. I am aware of several corporations here in Canada which have viewed the UK specifically through the lens of regulatory access to the EU and will likely be shifting operations to the continent.

 

The EU itself has tried to be gracious about the whole thing, and it is true that German exporters in particular would like trade relations smoothed over as soon as possible. There is talk, all the same, of negotiating harshly for the sake of 'deterrence' with a view to preventing other exits (some alluded to in the thread) and of course the Swiss, Norwegians and Icelanders would be right to wonder what the UK has done to earn any future preferential treatment.

 

So, tough times ahead. I do hope, at this point, that the best prognoses turn out true and the UK will thrive in the end, but it does no good to whistle past the graveyard.

[Virella]

rNJ05NfM-4Y

 

EU is great right? RIGHT?!

[LiadansWhisper]

rNJ05NfM-4Y

 

EU is great right? RIGHT?!

 

He makes a lot of good points, I'll admit.

[Rusty Knight]

To avoid going against the purpose of this threads creation I'm avoiding responding to anything that may cause a debate to occur.

 

Another update regarding Scottish Independence & the European Union

 

Find below the quote from Mr Van Rompuy (Head of the European Council) in regards to question in Catalonia; which if people are not aware of is a region of Spain seeking independence and an autonomous community currently.

 

"Mr Van Rompuy was answering a question about a proposed referendum in Catalonia. He declined to comment on a specific country, but agreed to set out “some of the principles that would apply in such a scenario.”

 

Speaking at a press conference in Madrid yesterday, he said: “If a part of the territory of a Member State ceases to be a part of that state because that territory becomes a new independent state, the treaties will no longer apply to that territory.

 

“In other words, a new independent state would, by the fact of its independence, become a third country with respect to the Union and the treaties would, from the day of its independence, not apply anymore on its territory.”

 

Any new state could “apply to become a member of the Union” in line with established accession treaties, but “this would be subject to ratification by all Member States and the Applicant State.”"

 

Full article: http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/independent-scotland-would-have-to-reapply-to-eu-1-3232221

[Rusty Knight]

So its been a couple of days and the first meeting of the EU after #Brexit was declared, whats happened?

 

On Negotiations...

 

Its been stated quite clearly now in a motion passed by EU Parliament that there won't be any done until article 50 is declared, they've also made it quite clear (If it wasn't already) they would like the UK to make its declaration soon through an EU motion which passed.

 

There are widespread calls from several states to seek calm rational talks over any negotiations set to occur; not to seek to 'Punish' or 'Revenge' for the Democratic decision of the UK. At the same time however its been made clear that as one would expect, if we want anything we'll have to trade accordingly for it. (Single Market will mean Free Movement of People ect)

 

In li Britannia

 

Our political system is still a mess, the Labour Party is in the midst of a civil war where it is expected within about 1 hour (UTC+1) of this post there will be a declaration of no confidence in the current leader. Meanwhile in the Conservative Party the leadership contest nominees is due to close tomorrow, from which the candidates will be whittled down to two before being voted on.

 

A Second Referendum?

 

In the true spirit of Democracy, there has been, as most are already aware widespread calls of a second referendum citing various reasons. With the looming leadership contest there have been individuals (Jeremy Hunt, the current beloved health secretary) who have cited they will declare a second referendum and the previous null and void if they were to win.

 

Others have also cited making retaining access to the single market their absolute priority; however to do this the UK would have to accept the free movement of people which was a key point in the Leave Campaign which makes this unlikely, but still definitely possible with the current state of chaos in government.

 

On the Rock of Gibraltar

 

Put shortly they are looking to try and negotiate with Brussels for Gibraltar to be excluded from any UK succession from the EU. The success of this is dubious for reasons such as Spain's hotly contested claimed sovereignty of the Rock, current EU law & Scotland.

 

Up Nerth (Scotland)

 

Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister of Scotland has backtracked to a degree by saying she does not intend to call a referendum at this time; merely intending to observe and ensure Scotlands voice is heard in the negotiations to try maintain as much of the EU's benefits for the region as possible. There is a faint whisper they may try to follow Gibraltar's ideal solution, however as per above its dubious. She has also cemented her statement however that IndyRef2 is still an option if she believes it to be in Scotlands best interests.

 

It should however be noted the SNP is the only current faction of the Scottish Parliament suggesting a possible independence referendum. There have been calls by both Labour and Conservative members of the Scottish Parliament to respect the previous referendum not two years ago. For those of you unaware the SNP is currently a minority (By a small amount but none the less a minority) in the Scottish Parliament, meaning they would have to gain more support from other parties to support any motion to Westminster.

 

What do look forward too?

 

Continued uncertainty while the political system sorts itself out; the Stirling to retain its volatile nature for the moment and lots more promises.

 

On a future outlook, the Liberal Democrats current leader has declared that should they be elected to government they will seek to rejoin the EU in their manifesto. Most analysis of this points towards attempting to regain support for the party following their decimation at the previous general election by tapping into the remain supporters pool.

[Valence]

On the continent the general consensus of the main founders is leaning toward a hard stance. They are calling for a decision to be made soon, because they feel that the UK are playing the time and they fear that it's a way for them to ask for even more privileges and unique status than they already had. It is heavily felt that the UK are always trying not to play by the rules and basically have their cake and eat it. In clear, Italy, Germany and France are pushing for a quick decision so that all of this is not used as leverage against the EU for more privileges, while trying to get a good balance between two extrems: no agreements at all, start from scratch, and just granting the same privileges they had without all the obligations that go with staying inside.

[Nebbs]

It a right old pickle and no mistake.

 

Still it's not like the history of the past where swords, longbows tanks and nuclear threats were the way to resolve issues. Progress in how we deal with disagreement so Europe is evolving in the right direction, despite a few steps back.

[LiadansWhisper]

On the continent the general consensus of the main founders is leaning toward a hard stance. They are calling for a decision to be made soon, because they feel that the UK are playing the time and they fear that it's a way for them to ask for even more privileges and unique status than they already had. It is heavily felt that the UK are always trying not to play by the rules and basically have their cake and eat it. In clear, Italy, Germany and France are pushing for a quick decision so that all of this is not used as leverage against the EU for more privileges, while trying to get a good balance between two extrems: no agreements at all, start from scratch, and just granting the same privileges they had without all the obligations that go with staying inside.

 

I honestly think Cameron is just stalling as much as he can.

[Rusty Knight]

I think its less so stalling for time; Cameron doesn't really care anymore from what the media are portraying (Although the media portraying anything is highly dubious anyway) and instead is simply looking to try avoid ruining his 'legacy' as much as possible. Afterall this is the same person who said he would stay on after the referendum regardless of the result; prior to resigning hours after he lost. Its all damage control for the moment before he can slip away and allow someone else to take the hit for the UK's departure.

 

This can be seen in the attitude at the EU dinner he attended this evening, he looks like a man who no longer wants to be there and is just miming the words.

 

On the negotiation front, I do wonder how it will go. Boris Johnson is currently, according to reports the top contender for the Conservative leadership post. If he gets it the widespread expectation will be no deal for the single market due to the restriction on global trade it'll impose and the mandatory Schengen zone.

 

Ultimately it'll be rather clear cut, If we find ourselves with a Europhile Conservative we will end up with the same arrangements but the full shebang (Schengen & Single Market no exceptions for the UK) which will cause relative uproar as ignoring 50% of the countries vote. If we end up with a Eurosceptic Conservative (Which would make sense) we'll end up with no Single Market or Schengen, but instead our way of trade will change wholly with a more global outlook and all interests will be in getting the cheapest tariff with Europe.

 

On Distant Lands

 

So far the countries looking to negotiate or having expressed interest at this stage for trade deals with the UK post Brexit are:

 

New Zealand

Australia

Ghana

United States

India

Canada

[Maril]

-snip- 

 

On Distant Lands

 

So far the countries looking to negotiate or having expressed interest at this stage for trade deals with the UK post Brexit are:

 

New Zealand

Australia

Ghana

United States

India

Canada

 

Denmark needs to get in on that, seriously. Where are we going to send all of this bacon? The bacon-industry is legitimately worried because they're already struggling, and the UK has been a huge importer of Danish bacon for many years. 

 

Should've been the remain campaigns slogan; "Save the bacon".

[Valence]

If the UK pulls up article 50 (which is the logical thing to do now that Brexit is a thing), then outside of the EU, if negociations are made to stay in the EU global market (which was THE agreement that the UK relied on within the EU), and keep free travel and various other privileges, it could end up with a status akin to Norway, which is, having access to a good part of the EU agreements, like they currently do, but without a voice in those matters anymore since not part of the EU (like Norway). Which is kind of like a lose-lose situation.

[Virella]

The whole EU should function like Norway does with the other countries. I absolutely hate the EU interfering with local laws.

 

For example, and one we are famous for. Our weed. We, the peasants, want our coffeeshops to be capable of just buying their weed legally. Instead we have this twisted thing in the law that they still buy it illegal, aka it is still a criminal business. Dutch people are sick and tired of illegal weed growth, because it happens a lot, and I don't have to explain the consequences of such.

 

In the meantime, the EU is blocking the Dutch to pass laws onto getting growing it legally. We could make so much money on taxes onto it on top if it, not to mention we could control what is stuffed into the weed. Sadly enough it happens there are other drugs thrown into it. Whereas a lot of coffeeshops are very strict about checking the quality, it does happen. And it shouldn't.

 

But hey, the EU doesn't want it, so our EU sucking up politicians are smothering any law change in its crib. While it should be so much better.

 

Not to mention the EU demanded us to close the coffeshops in the bordercities with Germany and Belgium. It would reduce drugrunners from other countries coming over they said. It has been a very odd an selective thing as well on which cities shops got closed on top of that. Anyhow, most come with car, and if you drive like 15 mins further, you can get your weed anyhow, so it has no effect whatsoever.

 

On top of that, having lived in one of these cities, and the other gone to school. Guess twice what happened? Instead of containing the folk to the coffeshops were they did no harm, they are all out on the streets dealing shit now. Whereas I didn't mind going trough certain parts of one city before the closing of the coffeeshops, I wouldn't dare to step a foot alone in there at night any more after they closed it.

 

So all those places around the coffeeshops became super scummy and criminal, while before it wasn't bad at all. But hey, the EU said it would work, right?

 

Fucking EU politicians and having no fucking clue how things work on a local level. And this is just one of the many problems the EU isn't solving, but making worse in the Netherlands. They have such a hard on for one united country and culture, while that simply doesn't work. As I said, the above examples involving weed is one of them. We want to decriminalize things, the EU still pretends they know better than the people actually living in the Netherlands. Fuck the EU in its current state.

[LadyRochester]

Both sides have good reasons to choose what they wish, to be frank, I do not envy the decision they had to face.

 

However, I will point out that I strongly dislike the fear-mongering seen on both ends, especially on the side of those who voted remain. Leaving the EU won't be the end of England or the world. It will lead to a recession, but it should be short term, certainly not as bad as the recession in 2008.

 

The more fearful people are of the future of post-Brexit England, the more it will lead to uncertainty, and the worse the economic recession will be. After all, uncertainty is the economy's worst enemy, as it stalls the market.

 

I'm not going to say either side is wrong or right, but for those already panicking and claiming it will ruin their lives, please understand that England will most likely pull through. Any nation with a backbone knows that refusing to trade with post-brexit Britain would be absolutely moronic, as it is still considered a rather powerful nation when it comes to economy. 

 

Germany, USA and Canada ALL say they want special trade deals with post-Brexit Britain

 

Statement from the Governor of the Bank of England following the EU referendum result

 

I'm also a little irked about the whole "OLD PEOPLE SHOULDN'T VOTE" narrative.

 

Yes, most people who opted for Brexit were older than 45 (Though not by a large margin), but the whole "They're going to die soon so they don't care!" is, to put it bluntly, bullshit. Most of these people will live to see the results and will be affected by them, just as you do. To dismiss someone's opinion based on their age is petty and stupid. 

 

 

TL;DR: Stop panicking. Everything will be fine. Britain was fucked either way.

[Rusty Knight]

Up Nerth (Scotland)

 

Today the Spanish Prime Minister declared that Spain recognises only the United Kingdom as the negotiating body with the EU, as indicated here:

 

Spanish prime minister Mariano Rajoy has dashed Scottish hopes of retaining EU membership in the case of a British exit from the bloc, insisting that there could be no separate negotiations between Brussels and Edinburgh.

 

“If the United Kingdom leaves [the EU], so does Scotland,” he told a press conference in Brussels on Wednesday as first minister Nicola Sturgeon arrived for talks with Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker, reports Tobias Buck in Madrid.

 

“Scotland has no competences to negotiate with the EU. The Spanish government rejects any negotiation with anyone other than the United Kingdom”, said Mr Rajoy, currently acting prime minister of the country.

 

As per the article; this supports the previous comments that Spain will veto any attempt by breakaway states to join the EU in order to prevent a precedent being set to which Catalonia may seek to utilise in their pursuit of independence.

 

Full article: http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/06/29/rajoy-dashes-scottish-hopes-of-eu-membership/

 

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In regards to everything crying impending doom, remember its only been a week and nothing has happened. All the economic issues are from the uncertainty.

[Lutka]

To say it in the right words up nerth: "'Tis a bunch o' jessies crappin' everywhar an' we need tae wait fer the moppers."

 

We will have a functioning country, it's not going to be utter shite...but we are going to have to wade waist deep for a while. It'll be fine, eventually.

[Nebbs]

Up Nerth (Scotland)

 

Today the Spanish Prime Minister declared that Spain recognises only the United Kingdom as the negotiating body with the EU, as indicated here:

 

Spanish prime minister Mariano Rajoy has dashed Scottish hopes of retaining EU membership in the case of a British exit from the bloc, insisting that there could be no separate negotiations between Brussels and Edinburgh.

 

“If the United Kingdom leaves [the EU], so does Scotland,” he told a press conference in Brussels on Wednesday as first minister Nicola Sturgeon arrived for talks with Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker, reports Tobias Buck in Madrid.

 

“Scotland has no competences to negotiate with the EU. The Spanish government rejects any negotiation with anyone other than the United Kingdom”, said Mr Rajoy, currently acting prime minister of the country.

 

As per the article; this supports the previous comments that Spain will veto any attempt by breakaway states to join the EU in order to prevent a precedent being set to which Catalonia may seek to utilise in their pursuit of independence.

 

Full article: http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/06/29/rajoy-dashes-scottish-hopes-of-eu-membership/

 

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In regards to everything crying impending doom, remember its only been a week and nothing has happened. All the economic issues are from the uncertainty.

 

The motivation - Gibraltar

 

Though there are many (many) UK people living in Spain.

[Grenat Querroux]

On the economic front, the FTSE 100 stock index (higher cap with many internationals) has rallied - by all accounts solely because investors realised that the invocation of Article 50 will take more time than expected and business will continue as usual for a few months. FTSE 250 (more UK-centric) remains pretty awful, and the less said about the pound, the better.

 

There is a real concern that once 'the City', (colloquial name for London's financial services centre, derived from the central area of the metropolis where many of the firms are headquartered) loses its ability to trade in euro-denominated securities, the financial industry will stampede to the Continent, which would hurt the economy considerably. Actually, that's another thing worth underlining: in contrast with participation in free trade zones, bilateral free trade agreements do not tend to be concluded in blanket, catch-all terms. They tend to go industry-by-industry, which is how advantages get extracted by parties with better leverage. The EU will be happy to trade freely in commodities and manufactured goods, where it has the upper hand, but not in financial services, the UK's domain.

 

The 'Regrexit' petition (cute hashtag if there ever was one) has gotten something on the order of 4 million signatures, and the US Secretary of State has made headlines this morning by saying that the vote could be walked back because no one among the country's leadership has any idea how to actually go about getting the process started. While that strikes me as cozy wishful thinking, it is telling just how quiet the leaders of leave have been after their victory, and how little planning for the consequences of that victory was apparently done. One American op-ed invoked the cliché of a car-chasing dog perplexed by having actually caught one, and it's kind of hard to argue with that image.

 

Scotland's special fast-track to the EU is indeed opposed by Spain and possibly other nations with restive independence-minded regions of their own, but Sturgeon is continuing her meetings with EU officials, and a new poll suggests that support for Scottish independence has been bolstered significantly from the 2014 referendum. As against that, the economic case for secession from the UK is far from persuasive. It is yet another one of the things that will take years to sort out.

 

And, on a sad note, a big rise in reports of anti-immigrant hate crimes and abuse has been noted immediately following the vote, about 57% according to the National Police Chiefs' Council.

 

My own dim opinion of Brexit aside, I suppose one thing that folks supportive of leave and remain can agree on, for the benefit of the American perspective which started this thread in the first place: succeed or fail, it's a pretty educational test case with some easy translations to American politics. Nativism and protectionism versus globalisation and international structures. Worth paying attention.

[Chlodomer]

On the economic front, the FTSE 100 stock index (higher cap with many internationals) has rallied - by all accounts solely because investors realised that the invocation of Article 50 will take more time than expected and business will continue as usual for a few months. FTSE 250 (more UK-centric) remains pretty awful, and the less said about the pound, the better.

 

There is a real concern that once 'the City', (colloquial name for London's financial services centre, derived from the central area of the metropolis where many of the firms are headquartered) loses its ability to trade in euro-denominated securities, the financial industry will stampede to the Continent, which would hurt the economy considerably. Actually, that's another thing worth underlining: in contrast with participation in free trade zones, bilateral free trade agreements do not tend to be concluded in blanket, catch-all terms. They tend to go industry-by-industry, which is how advantages get extracted by parties with better leverage. The EU will be happy to trade freely in commodities and manufactured goods, where it has the upper hand, but not in financial services, the UK's domain.

 

The 'Regrexit' petition (cute hashtag if there ever was one) has gotten something on the order of 4 million signatures, and the US Secretary of State has made headlines this morning by saying that the vote could be walked back because no one among the country's leadership has any idea how to actually go about getting the process started. While that strikes me as cozy wishful thinking, it is telling just how quiet the leaders of leave have been after their victory, and how little planning for the consequences of that victory was apparently done. One American op-ed invoked the cliché of a car-chasing dog perplexed by having actually caught one, and it's kind of hard to argue with that image.

 

Scotland's special fast-track to the EU is indeed opposed by Spain and possibly other nations with restive independence-minded regions of their own, but Sturgeon is continuing her meetings with EU officials, and a new poll suggests that support for Scottish independence has been bolstered significantly from the 2014 referendum. As against that, the economic case for secession from the UK is far from persuasive. It is yet another one of the things that will take years to sort out.

 

And, on a sad note, a big rise in reports of anti-immigrant hate crimes and abuse has been noted immediately following the vote, about 57% according to the National Police Chiefs' Council.

 

My own dim opinion of Brexit aside, I suppose one thing that folks supportive of leave and remain can agree on, for the benefit of the American perspective which started this thread in the first place: succeed or fail, it's a pretty educational test case with some easy translations to American politics. Nativism and protectionism versus globalisation and international structures. Worth paying attention.

 

Well you know what they say, you can't make omelettes without breaking some eggs.