ELIA: UK Referendum

[Teadrinker]

Explain Like I'm American! UK Referendum Edition!

 

https://www.reddit.com/live/x53e44r52h80

 

 

I've never been able to leave the States and am unaware of the ramifications for those of you across the pond. Can anyone chime in on this and how it will affect them? I heard the analogy that it's like several States seceding from the American union but I don't know if that's an accurate analogy.

 

This is not a debate thread. I'm just asking for this to be focused in a lens for an American and how it might affect individual users. o/

[Nebbs]

Well the political right are claiming this as "Independence day", I can't help but smile at the irony of the xenophobic UK leader adopting a US thing that was made against the British Empire.

 

Still the vote has been made, it means lots of uncertainty both at the National level and at individual level. Uncertainty = stress.

 

Globally things will pull out of UK due to that uncertainty, while others will come in to make money off the back of the confusion.

 

In the end we are British, we will keep a stiff upper lip and carry on.

 

[edit] I wonder how long before we have a UK linkshell

[Virella]

As for personally affecting? With the euro dropping, but not as hard as the pound is currently? It means having to pay more for goods from non EU countries for me. A shame, but one we all saw coming with Brexit. Maybe it will get harder to travel to the UK for me, given I do visit it on a yearly base since the past few year.

 

It is a wait and see situation. But that is the direct thing I can tell as a Dutch citizen what will instantly influence me as of now. The rest? A wait and see situation. It may usher in the start of massive reforming of the EU, or it breaking completely apart, and certain countries starting a new alliance. Who knows?

 

And this is the point I will hush, at OP's request I won't start fuelling a debate, unlike Nebs who's trying to bait it currently. I can start massive rants about the EU, and their wrongdoings, but I won't. (As well, most of my sources are made by Dutch journalists sadly enough. And I fear I won't get far with Dutchie gobbiespeak here:P) Nebs, go slap yourself on the wrist, and no tea for you tonight.

[Rusty Knight]

Can anyone chime in on this and how it will affect them? I heard the analogy that it's like several States seceding from the American union but I don't know if that's an accurate analogy.

 

Lots of confusion, an initial market crash followed by a slow stablisation and lots of negotiations to sort out the departure of the United Kingdom from the EU.

 

There is no change in day to day stuff for now, until the UK activates the treaty (and for two subsequent years after the day we activate it) to depart the EU we still abide by all the same regulations and rules that we were bound by before the vote.

 

How our government handles this however will be the biggest question. Our chancellor has effectively threatened to implement a 'Punishment' budget which includes tax hikes and major cuts; although the chance of him getting this through parliament is effectively nil.

 

For me personally? I can expect my savings to depreciate to a degree due to the Stirling taking a dent in the short term however other than that its keep calm and carry on.

 

Its way too early to start calling anything though; our prime minister hasn't even emerged from No10. Until the flames die down no one knows where its headed and to what extent in the future things will change.

[Lydia Lightfoot]

It's not at all comparable to a state secession from the USA. Although the states of the USA have a degree of autonomy they are all cemented together by the Federal government from day one. 

 

A better comparison would be a withdrawal of a country from, say, NATO. Diminishes the whole, certainly, but to what extent is speculative, and barring a domino effect of other members following suit the organization and the departing member are both likely to adapt and carry on with, probably, only short-term impact to anyone.

 

Although such organizations hope members will never decide to leave, the framework exists to permit their departure if the call for departure occurs democratically (whereas, regardless of even a 90% popular approval on the part of a state's citizens in the USA, our Federal government would just sort of shrug a little).

[Valence]

That's a lot deeper than a comparison with NATO. Although the UK isn't a signatory of all of the EU's treaties, like the Eurozone and Schengen zone, it's still part of many agreements, economical especially (for the most important, agriculture, and the monetary support for eastern Europe, which is measured in billions per years), and that's more than just withdrawing from a military alliance. We have to remember that the EU is more than just an union of agreements. It has a growing government and parliament, and is issuing a colossal amount of laws and regulations, and is progressively taking a more and more important part of each member nations governing autonomy.

 

Another issue remains that withdrawing from the EU is technically a black hole, because it's not taken into consideration in the foundings of the union proper. It's not forbidden mind you, but it has never really been taken into consideration. That will obviously not prevent it from happening, but it's a first.

 

Then once it's done you get the status of the country itself as major issue: it would leave UK like a country that has absolutely no agreements or deals with the EU whatsoever (to give a perspective, even Turkey has some of those). Not only would they require full visas to get in/out of territory, but all economic ties would be lost. To make a (very!) gross analogy for americans, it would be like Canada suddenly losing all ties and travel/economic agreements with the US, and becoming like Mexico. They would have to re-apply for all of that and that would take years. Nobody wants that and that's probably why they are willing to negociate a lot around it.

 

Then you have the issue of all the duties/benefits that the UK had to honour while in the EU, like the yearly financing for the lesser developped countries of the Union (like all of the new eastern Europe members, for whom ironically the UK was the biggest proponent, and these countries were strongly in favour of the Remain vote). Or like fishing quotas, etc. The UK would not have to pay for that anymore, and that would mean for the biggest contributors like Germany and France to give more to compensate among other things. The UK would also stop getting european subventions (like fishing, esp Scotland).

 

The biggest nightmare for everyone right now is to see independence movements being embolden by that move. Denmark for example, has grown quite anti Europe (not to the extent of the UK for now). People are afraid that could snowball. Internally in the UK as well, with europhiles like Scotland and Ireland. 

 

Then you have all the speculation going, that is less about facts and more about predictions: the City of London losing progressively its central place on stockmarket and moving to the EU other hubs, the UK losing lots of growth over ten years without the EU behind, etc. Only time will tell. Maybe it's going to be the contrary, who knows.

 

And well, it's also a huge loss for the EU, which account for approximately right now around a quarter of the world's GNP and economy, by far the first. UK is a non negligible part of it.

 

On another note, we don't know how it's going to shift the powers inside the EU as well. The UK is close to the northern countries way of thinking, which are big proponent of free open trade. If the UK leaves, it will leave Scandinavian nations in an awkward and weakened position against the more centralistic views of the founders. There is also the language thing, perhaps. The UK gone, the only english speaking country left would be Malta. It is therefore possible that the (bastardized version of) english being the main language would be challenged by the french again, because Germany would be left without a strong excuse against it. All in all, for some countries, the UK was a much needed third player, for that they tend to see otherwise something that could be taken as a napoleonic nightmare.

 

______________

 

 

But I feel like doing a disservice to a very complicated matter with that gross summary here... with maybe inaccuracies. I would highly suggest finding a more exhaustive and factual source than my own europhile bias.

[Valence]

Ah, "funnier" news:

 

- Spain didn't wait very long to "offer" to London to co-rule Gibraltar because Gibraltar has been voting massively for Remain, not to lose access to the EU market. They said that it would eventually lead to a return in spanish territory. I thought at first it was just a troll...

 

- Agreements made between France and UK for boundary/customs to be able to be done in Northern France to limit immigration to the UK, which was favorable for the UK and less so for France, have been put into question this morning. Some are pushing to remove them and push back the boundary where it's supposed to be. It might actually made immigration more problematic for the UK if it ever happens (the irony).

 

- The winning side has called for an Independence Day to be created!

[V'aleera]

- The winning side has called for an Independence Day to be created!

 

If there's one thing the UK knows a lot about, it's countries declaring independence in the face of a pan-national monolith telling them it's in their best interest not to.

[111]

I think every sovereign nation should make the decisions that are best for it.

 

I hope this decision ends up working out well for Great Britain.

[Grenat Querroux]

One thing worth adding to this, perhaps [edit: which Scarlet has already, but may as well underscore it] is that it will take years to disentangle the UK from the EU. Technically, the referendum has accomplished nothing in and of itself. It just made the popular will known. The UK government will have to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and initiate the whole process.

 

So, nothing actually changes overnight. The UK government could even theoretically refuse to act on the referendum, but of course that would be politically impossible. It can, however, take its time with implementation.

 

Going to follow the OP's request not to get polemical about this but I will say at least that it is hugely disappointing, to me. A victory for precisely the forces that ought not to be winning, on any side of the Atlantic or the English Channel.

[Nebbs]

One thing worth adding to this, perhaps, is that it will take years to disentangle the UK from the EU. Technically, the referendum has accomplished nothing in and of itself. It just made the popular will known. The UK government will have to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and initiate the whole process.

 

 

It will be so long that in fact it will be an entanglement shift as new entanglements arrive old ones start to go etc..

 

Avoiding any imperial entanglements, that's the real trick.

[Kage]

Right now I'm just going to lightheartedly say "ok fuck I can't import anything from Japan now cause look at that yen to usd exchange rate"

[Maril]

Strange world to wake up to. I actually went to bed thinking that the remain side would catch up, but it wasn't so. 

For me it's going to complicate my long-distance-relationship, which I am not too happy about. There's also a lot of talk suggesting that this might cause Denmark to have a vote next. They just please shouldn't call it Danxit because that sounds stupid >.

 

I made a silly picture for it:

 

 

 

 

[Kellach Woods]

They just please shouldn't call it Danxit because that sounds stupid >.<

 

 

Brexit sounded fucking stupid and that didn't stop them.

 

Other consequences: Scotland might be considering a second referendum.

[Kage]

They just please shouldn't call it Danxit because that sounds stupid >.<

 

 

Brexit sounded fucking stupid and that didn't stop them.

 

Other consequences: Scotland might be considering a second referendum.

"Dexit"

 

Ireland is reconsidering reunification too.

[Rusty Knight]

So the latest overview for those of you not following the news in the UK,

 

Our PM has resigned, although his departure won't be until the ruling party conference in October in order to try provide stability and transition to a new PM who will lead the UK in its renegotiation and departure from the EU. He has explicitly stated he will not be activating article 50 himself. Which means it'll be three months until that two year period begins at the earliest.

 

The Leave campaign is certainly not looking to activate article 50 anytime soon; they fully intend to handle as much negotiation and sort the framework of an independent UK before activating anything. In contrast the EU has stated they want the UK to do it as quickly as possible; although they've no ability to force the UK out until it decides. Bare in mind the UK retains its veto and voice in the EU until article 50 is activated; then we lose both.

The current timescale being ball parked by the leave campaign is activating article 50 some time in 2018, which would mean we'd leave the EU in 2020. IF this remains the plan who knows.

 

Scotland's SNP (Scottish National Party) is looking to depart the UK and join the EU. The first minister for Scotland fully intends to talk to all the EU countries to try get an idea if they will be able to join if they did leave. Its worth while noting however the UK Referendum is just that, the UK referendum. It wasn't the Scottish/Northern Irish/Welsh/English referendum; will they legally be able to claim a second referendum? Who knows, let alone win it. Despite all of Scotland technically declaring for a remain vote almost every Scottish voting area was within 10%ish of the 50/50 mark. Some of the areas were as little was 0.9% difference between leave/remain having the most votes.

 

Northern Ireland is something too difficult to guess; the history of Northern Ireland will make any attempt to unify the two potentially a very bloody affair. Unionists and Nationalists are both extremely unlikely to yield willingly, especially with only 10%ish of the vote swaying in favour of remain. In my opinion what the UK negotiates with Ireland will decide if this is pursued or not. Hard border controls (passport, customs, immigration ect) will certainly prompt it if implemented, even then expect conflict.

 

Gibraltar has already had its sovereignty reaffirmed by the government which has declared it has no intentions of yielding the rock or entering into any sort of 'sharing' deal with Spain. Not only does it serve as a strategic military position but it also shares a similar feeling with the Falkland Islands, of which Argentina has tried many times (Famously waging war in an attempt) to secure them. The feeling on the rock is very much of rising to the challenge according to the news.

 

At the moment the main priority for everyone is settling down the financial sector and this is being echoed by all financial institutions who are seeking clarity on the economic plan. The Bank of England, IMF and US Banking sector are working hard to stabilise the situation, its worth noting since the last big financial crashes all banks have had to prepare and drill contingency plans for catastrophic circumstances far beyond what we're currently experiencing. Now is the test to see if they pay off in reality.

 

Regarding the call for a second referendum with a higher majority required to leave the EU happening....

 

The chance of it happening is like soloing Nidhogg EX. Its not going to happen, the political consequences of a second vote would be massive and go against the nature of democracy. It's always been quite clearly stated in the UK that it was a once only affair.

 

TLDR;

 

The UK and its territories are currently wounded and its going to take a helluva lot of healing both politically, financially and among the population as we deal with the fallout. Don't expect any big decisions soon.

[Valence]

Scotland voted 62% for remain. That's not 'almost everything was near the 50:50 margin' or something is borked mathematically in the UK...

[Oyuu]

Scotland voted 62% for remain. That's not 'almost everything was near the 50:50 margin' or something is borked mathematically in the UK...

 

I'm trying to find the source, but I think they are referring to some of the different counties/regions within Scotland voting almost 50/50, not Scotland as a whole.

[Nebbs]

This was an each vote counts. I am sure much will be drawn from location, age and other demographic things. 

 

It will be a frenzy of positioning now, there will be experts under every rock.

 

Note that the view was UK would vote stay in, but then voted get out. So I would take any assertions on how people think as dubious.

 

the lesson, be careful when you give people a vote.. they will vote based on their reality not yours.

[Oyuu]

Scotland voted 62% for remain. That's not 'almost everything was near the 50:50 margin' or something is borked mathematically in the UK...

 

I'm trying to find the source, but I think they are referring to some of the different counties/regions within Scotland voting almost 50/50, not Scotland as a whole.

 

Found it: Source

 

Although there was only a couple of regions that voted below 55% Remain.

[Rusty Knight]

Scotland voted 62% for remain. That's not 'almost everything was near the 50:50 margin' or something is borked mathematically in the UK...

 

almost every Scottish voting area was within 10%ish of the 50/50 mark

 

The emphasis was on the fact whilst Scotland did vote 62% to remain a member of the EU, in quite a few regions it was much closer then the SNP would of liked. It certainly wasn't an overwhelming majority of 75%+ of the vote. If this translates into a taste for independence themselves from a union that has existed long before the EU, who knows. Certainly the Scots I work with don't believe it will happen.

 

Until talks get underway and Scotland formally petitions for a second referendum we will have to wait and see.

 

For those of you interested, the BBC have a good interactive map showing remain areas in yellow, leave in blue with breakdowns ect.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_referendum/results

 

Damn, too slow! Lel.

[Maril]

They just please shouldn't call it Danxit because that sounds stupid >.

 

 

Brexit sounded fucking stupid and that didn't stop them.

 

Other consequences: Scotland might be considering a second referendum.

"Dexit"

 

Ireland is reconsidering reunification too.

 

That kind of sound like some new dental product. "Try Dexit, it'll make your caries exit!"

[Virella]

They just please shouldn't call it Danxit because that sounds stupid >.<

 

 

Brexit sounded fucking stupid and that didn't stop them.

 

Other consequences: Scotland might be considering a second referendum.

"Dexit"

 

Ireland is reconsidering reunification too.

 

That kind of sound like some new dental product. "Try Dexit, it'll make your caries exit!"

People are shouting for a Nexit ever since our gov ignore the outcome with the Dutch voting NO against Ukraine.

 

Whereas I'm cautious about seeing the Dutch leaving the EU, my gov needs to go.

[Valence]

Scotland voted 62% for remain. That's not 'almost everything was near the 50:50 margin' or something is borked mathematically in the UK...

 

I'm trying to find the source, but I think they are referring to some of the different counties/regions within Scotland voting almost 50/50, not Scotland as a whole.

 

Found it: Source

 

Although there was only a couple of regions that voted below 55% Remain.

 

Ah thanks. Interesting. Most of them are indeed above 55 then.

 

Scotland voted 62% for remain. That's not 'almost everything was near the 50:50 margin' or something is borked mathematically in the UK...

 

almost every Scottish voting area was within 10%ish of the 50/50 mark

 

The emphasis was on the fact whilst Scotland did vote 62% to remain a member of the EU, in quite a few regions it was much closer then the SNP would of liked. It certainly wasn't an overwhelming majority of 75%+ of the vote.

 

I think I see what you mean.

 

Well, the thing I was also getting at is that 62/38 is actually very unbalance already. It's not just 12% over 50 (half), but a difference of 24% between both, which means a equivalent of a quarter of the population.

 

It's not exactly small, it's usually already considered pretty sweeping in most election stuff.

[LiadansWhisper]

Ireland is reconsidering reunification too.

 

This is unlikely to happen without serious bloodshed. Citizens of Northern Ireland already have a right to Irish citizenship and the right to move there if they wish. There's already been one vicious, violent, bloody civil war over the idea of reunification.