The three nations are at war, who wins?

[Unnamed Mercenary]

I could see Ul'dah siding with the Garleans. 

 

 

Gridania and the Elementals are still unhappy that there are Garleans in the Shroud, so I can't see them wanting to.

 

And Merlwyb would probably start headshotting any Garleans in uniform, no questions asked.

[Oscare]

I think I have to agree with the general consensus of "No one would actually be able to win". If you think about it, the advantages and disadvantages of each city state practically balance each other out. Meaning if they went to war, it'd just be a standstill.

Fighting in a forest is difficult. There are trees, rivers, thick foliage, and PLENTY of places to hide. And the Godsbow don't mess around, they take advantage of every choke point and sniper spot and can pick off a large amount of people before they even get to the city itself, where a bunch of army ready lancers and conjurers can blow off whoever remains. 

 

La Noscea has the largest navy in Eorzea, so that in itself is just plain suicide. Sea forces will always dominate land forces.

 

Fighting in a desert is also kind of difficult as well. Fighters trained to that environment learn to camouflage and attack, making it just like Gridania. By the time you actually get to the city, you'll probably have less than half the people you came in with. And, of course, Ul'dah has the biggest military of the three cities. They also have incredibly deadly forces -- pugilists, paladins, and thaumuturgy. None of those are very fun to pit against.

 

There's also another factor -- the beast tribes. If they detect that they are being threatened? You'll bet your ass they'll interfere. Usually they're kind of desolate (except the peaceful Sylphs, who WILL fight if they feel like they're being terrorized) but that doesn't mean they'll go out of their way to slap a bitch in the face for steppin' on der turffz. And don't even get started with how deadly the Sahagins or Amal'jaa can get.

 

The Empire is the only one that can really get around becuz MACHINEZZZZZZ. And super knowledgeable. They're always a force to be reckoned with.

[Sounsyy]

So if this is a war strictly between Limsa, Gridania, and Ul'dah I believe Limsa Lominsa would win hands down.

 

Gridania owns the second largest reserve of natural resources with which to sustain themselves throughout a long siege, however, they cannot take in excess. Excess would be needed in war time. We have lore evidence that Gridania's military might is actually quite formidable. A hundred years ago during the Autumn War, Gridania alone was able to repel the might of Ala Mhigo (a nation that eventually took the combined might of Gridania, Ishgard, Ul'dah, and Limsa to defeat) UNTIL their general died and they got a new guy who was a total idiot and cost them the war. Hence the other four nations stepping in to help repel Ala Mhigo.

 

But all of this military might is irrelevant today because Garlemald exposed a pivotal weakness before the Calamity. The Elementals. Sure, the Elementals defend the Twelveswood, but when angered, the Elementals kill indiscriminately. If Ul'dah were to antagonize the Elementals with isolated forest fires and damaging Hedge Trees, the Elementals would wipe out the Gridanians. This kind of thing has happened twice in Gridania's History. (See:

and

)

 

Ul'dah does have perhaps the most formidable land-based military might and defenses, however, they are ultimately doomed by their lack of resources. Namely, food. According to lore, Ul'dah actually IMPORTS everything short of minerals/jewels. Textiles, fruits/vegetables, lumber, and raw materials for medicinal salves all are imported from Gridania. Iron, steel, fish, and imports from across The Five Seas all come via Limsa Lominsa. The only thing Ul'dah actually controls harvesting and production on is gemstones and ceruleum. (The only use Eorzea has for Ceruleum is for powering their airships.) Also, as was pointed out earlier in the thread, Ul'dah only water source lies outside the city. With absolutely 0 imports from other nations coming in and their only water source lying outside the protective walls, I believe Ul'dah would crumble both financially and physically under the might of a blockade.

 

This leaves Limsa. They have 14 Squadrons of war-ready vessels patrolling every body of water in and around Eorzea, and even some beyond Eorzea. They have an unlimited source of Food supply via the seas, and Naldiq & Vymelli's mass produces both war machines and infrastructure for their nation. Besides being untouchable by the other two nations because of their complete control over maritime travel, they also have full control over all goods being exported from other nations into Eorzea. In a head to head battle with Ul'dah, I would not see them coming out on top, but simply by drying out Ul'dah's supplies, Limsa would achieve victory.

 

If we brought Ishgard into the mix, they would support Gridania without a moments hesitation. The two nations are very close allies even after Ishgard shut its gates. With the combined forces of Ishgardian Knights with the Wood Wailers and Godsquivermen I can see Gridania/Ishgard being able to crush Ul'dah in a land-to-land battle. Especially after Ul'dah was crippled by Limsa's embargo of all imports. Having the biggest military means very little if they're all starved to death.

 

But then, of course, Garlemald would leap with joy and invade Eorzea and wipe out everyone and finally slaughter the beast tribes and their primals. All the while destitute Ala Mhigans are standing there facepalming.

[111]

The more I think about it, the more certain I am that in a war situation Ul'dah would immediately cut a deal with the Garleans if things went bad.

[Zyrusticae]

They have an unlimited source of Food supply via the seas[...]

This is a really good post (and points out some things about the Elementals that I was not aware of), but I just had to pick on this one misconception.

 

The seas are not limitless. Very bountiful, yes, but not limitless. It's difficult to quantify due to the sheer depth and opacity of the water, but it is possible to overfish an area (yes, even an area of the ocean itself) and put a strain on your food supplies if you're reckless. Even only overfishing a single species can have dreadful knock-on effects by killing off predators that were relying on that species as their primary source of food, which in turns gives scavengers less to scavenge on, etc., etc.

 

And before someone else tells me I'm overthinking it, this is what happens to my face when you tell me that:

 

 

Please stop! You're hurting me.

[Norna]

Which city would lose at siege? Ul'dah, because of their bloated population and lack of water and food, you only need to keep them inside for a couple of days, tops, which negates a lot of the "how do we get large quantities of food to us during a long campaign?". Limsa and Gridania also have healers on their side, so they could also go with a smaller force than Ul'dah would require to get at them.

 

Which city would lose at besieging? Ul'dah. They cannot besiege Limsa Lominsa. They cannot cross a desert and then be able to besiege Gridania without getting a face-full of white and elemental magic (remember, when elementals get grumpy, everything, including animals and plants, become grumpy as well). Ul'dah also doesn't have the healing guilds needed to pull off a besieging against those who do.

 

Which city would lose in open conflict on random, neutral plains? Ul'dah. No large number of healers. Only thaumaturges to pick off at a range (against the shield-producing conjurers? Against the quicker archers? If Limsa gets musketeers and rogues counted, those would also be an issue). Their melee units don't absorb as much damage as marauders and lancers. They don't have the real resources (food and water) to keep a large enough force supplied compared to what Limsa and Gridania could muster.

 

Gridania and Limsa Lominsa are about on par; impossible to besiege. Capable of holding out a long siege. Gridania has the most powerful magic known, while Limsa Lominsa can just have their arcanists do a summon rotation with aetherflow instead of sending out real soldiers for quite some time (when the enemy is tired).

 

Is Limsa have a go at Gridania (inland) they'll lose the battle, but Gridania also loses because of the aftermath of having been a battlefield.

 

Limsa should probably be the winner, because I can't figure out any way for Gridania to get at them without losing before they reach Vylbrand.

 

I'm not commenting on the aerial front since I haven't seen any war-ready fleets in the city-states.

[Warren Castille]

Let's not discount Ul'dah without looking at what they DO have. You can't say in one breath their thaumaturges would get picked off while ignoring the fact they have a shieldwall right in the city in the Gladiator's Guild. They lack proper healing magic but the best alchemists in the world work there. It's also folly to say that their melee units can't absorb as much damage as Marauders or Lancers; Pugilists and Lancers are fairly even, and without defiance or shield oath, MRD and GLD are pretty even.

 

Speaking of, there's a significant advantage that Ul'dah does have: Access to home-grown Paladins, since the job and order absolutely belong there. That means their ground units DO have access to Shield Oath, making them much more formidable than you're letting on.

 

I don't think it would be so cut and dry as "Ul'dah loses." That said, I do think Limsa's got the best chance.

[Sounsyy]

The seas are not limitless. Very bountiful, yes, but not limitless. It's difficult to quantify due to the sheer depth and opacity of the water, but it is possible to overfish an area (yes, even an area of the ocean itself) and put a strain on your food supplies if you're reckless.

 

Yeah, okay "limitless" probably a bit of an exaggeration, but considering Limsa has access to The Five Seas, the very fertile land of Vylbrand, as well as 100% of all goods exported by non-Aldenardian nations - their food supply may as well be considered "limitless" for their purposes. Remember the Lominsan Armada is a standing military that is continually deployed to the Five Seas. Meaning, their blockade is already appropriately feeding/supplying themselves and have been for many years. Their Demand for food supply actually shouldn't increase. If anything, it should decrease due to the fact that a good portion of their fishing production was previously exported to Ul'dah/Gridania. Now that you have fewer people to export to, more for yourself.

 

 

Ul'dah also doesn't have the healing guilds needed to pull off a besieging against those who do.

 

Not that I think it ultimately makes a difference in Ul'dah's chances, but they do actually have a Healing guild. Frondale's Phrontistery (the Alchemist's Guild) is a hospital and Alchemists by lore are chirurgeons/doctors.

[111]

I think that if Ul'dah was smart it would just pick away at anyone who entered the desert, and avoid a large battle until it was favorable. At the same time they'd just pay mercenaries to attack the enemy at home. I think Grid would fight as a medieval army, Limsa would fight more like a professorial army (similar to the british during colonial times), but I think ul'dah would fight more as a renaissance/30 years war type army.

 

Aka, they would have a large army, but it probably wouldn't get used for much besides sieges. Instead they'd use large scale pillaging and looting tactics with mercenaries to attack the other cities territories at home. It's easy to stop an army, but it's hard to stop hundreds of small bands of essential bandits who will just steal and kill.

 

Either way though I don't think any city state could really win. You completely underestimate how long cities can hold out in a siege. Ul'dah could probably hold for months if not years, as many cities often did. It does had some internal water sources, and they'd probably expel all the refugees first thing.

 

Edit: For example, Vienna was sieged by the ottomans in 1683, and easily held out for two months before reinforcements arrived. At the time the city had around 150,000 people.

[Melkire]

Definitely agree with Limsa having the best chance of coming out on top.

 

I'm still a little baffled as to how anyone is supposed to besiege Ul'dah, given how many ground troops they can field. Yes, they're the most vulnerable to a siege once you lock them down because lack of food and water will eventually take its toll once the stockpiles run out and the wells run dry... but getting them into that position seems near-impossible. I'd give a fight on an open, neutral field like Thanalan to thaumaturges behind a shieldwall rather than archers out in the open, so there goes any hope of a Gridanian siege short of Ishgard backing them up. Limsa might manage it, but I can't see them shelling the city from across Western Thanalan, and I'm not certain of the distances involved between Ul'dah and the seas to the south and the east.

 

P.S. Thanks for the lore dump, Sounsyy. I was almost certain I'd read something about Elementals killing indiscriminately when enraged, but I didn't know where to go to find that information again. IIRC, there's some ARR mentions/allusions to the previous occurrences somewhere in either the MSQ or the CNJ class quests.

[Aya]

Definitely agree with Limsa having the best chance of coming out on top.

 

I'm still a little baffled as to how anyone is supposed to besiege Ul'dah, given how many ground troops they can field. Yes, they're the most vulnerable to a siege once you lock them down because lack of food and water will eventually take its toll once the stockpiles run out and the wells run dry... but getting them into that position seems near-impossible. I'd give a fight on an open, neutral field like Thanalan to thaumaturges behind a shieldwall rather than archers out in the open, so there goes any hope of a Gridanian siege short of Ishgard backing them up. Limsa might manage it, but I can't see them shelling the city from across Western Thanalan, and I'm not certain of the distances involved between Ul'dah and the seas to the south and the east.

 

P.S. Thanks for the lore dump, Sounsyy. I was almost certain I'd read something about Elementals killing indiscriminately when enraged, but I didn't know where to go to find that information again. IIRC, there's some ARR mentions/allusions to the previous occurrences somewhere in either the MSQ or the CNJ class quests.

 

Why does a Gridanian siege of Ul'dah fill my head with the vision of Ents marching over an open desert until they steadily catch fire from the heat of the sun one-by-one...

[111]

Definitely agree with Limsa having the best chance of coming out on top.

 

I'm still a little baffled as to how anyone is supposed to besiege Ul'dah, given how many ground troops they can field. Yes, they're the most vulnerable to a siege once you lock them down because lack of food and water will eventually take its toll once the stockpiles run out and the wells run dry... but getting them into that position seems near-impossible. I'd give a fight on an open, neutral field like Thanalan to thaumaturges behind a shieldwall rather than archers out in the open, so there goes any hope of a Gridanian siege short of Ishgard backing them up. Limsa might manage it, but I can't see them shelling the city from across Western Thanalan, and I'm not certain of the distances involved between Ul'dah and the seas to the south and the east.

 

P.S. Thanks for the lore dump, Sounsyy. I was almost certain I'd read something about Elementals killing indiscriminately when enraged, but I didn't know where to go to find that information again. IIRC, there's some ARR mentions/allusions to the previous occurrences somewhere in either the MSQ or the CNJ class quests.

 

Why does a Gridanian siege of Ul'dah fill my head with the vision of Ents marching over an open desert until they steadily catch fire from the heat of the sun one-by-one...

 

Lolorito cackles and pulls off the sheet, revealing a giant magnifying glass on the height of Ul'dah's grand dome.

 

"BURN!" He shouts, "BURN LIKE THE INSECTS YOU ARE."

[Melkire]

Definitely agree with Limsa having the best chance of coming out on top.

 

I'm still a little baffled as to how anyone is supposed to besiege Ul'dah, given how many ground troops they can field. Yes, they're the most vulnerable to a siege once you lock them down because lack of food and water will eventually take its toll once the stockpiles run out and the wells run dry... but getting them into that position seems near-impossible. I'd give a fight on an open, neutral field like Thanalan to thaumaturges behind a shieldwall rather than archers out in the open, so there goes any hope of a Gridanian siege short of Ishgard backing them up. Limsa might manage it, but I can't see them shelling the city from across Western Thanalan, and I'm not certain of the distances involved between Ul'dah and the seas to the south and the east.

 

P.S. Thanks for the lore dump, Sounsyy. I was almost certain I'd read something about Elementals killing indiscriminately when enraged, but I didn't know where to go to find that information again. IIRC, there's some ARR mentions/allusions to the previous occurrences somewhere in either the MSQ or the CNJ class quests.

 

Why does a Gridanian siege of Ul'dah fill my head with the vision of Ents marching over an open desert until they steadily catch fire from the heat of the sun one-by-one...

 

Lolorito cackles and pulls off the sheet, revealing a giant magnifying glass on the height of Ul'dah's grand dome.

 

"BURN!" He shouts, "BURN LIKE THE INSECTS YOU ARE."

 

Lolorito: the hero Saruman needed, but not the one he deserved.

[LiadansWhisper]

 

 

 

Not that I think it ultimately makes a difference in Ul'dah's chances, but they do actually have a Healing guild. Frondale's Phrontistery (the Alchemist's Guild) is a hospital and Alchemists by lore are chirurgeons/doctors.

 

See, when I was doing the quests for Alchemy, they honestly came off as more mad scientists than doctors or chirurgeons.  But perhaps that's a 2.0 change.

[Sounsyy]

See, when I was doing the quests for Alchemy, they honestly came off as more mad scientists than doctors or chirurgeons.  But perhaps that's a 2.0 change.

 

(Skip to 13:58 for Phrontistery lore.)

 

Might be 2.0 change then. As I said in that other thread, almost all Ul'dah lore was wiped out in 2.0. Alchemists are doctors, Pugilists are debt collectors, and Thaumaturges are Ul'dah's lawmakers and morticians.

[LiadansWhisper]

See, when I was doing the quests for Alchemy, they honestly came off as more mad scientists than doctors or chirurgeons.  But perhaps that's a 2.0 change.

 

(Skip to 13:58 for Phrontistery lore.)

 

Might be 2.0 change then. As I said in that other thread, almost all Ul'dah lore was wiped out in 2.0. Alchemists are doctors, Pugilists are debt collectors, and Thaumaturges are Ul'dah's lawmakers and morticians.

 

Every time you tell me about the lore from 1.0 and I look at the lore from 2.0, I want to go into a corner and cry.  :cry:

[Marisa]

With the elementals watching over Gridania, I have no clue how one would stage a successful invasion of the Shroud. However, Limsa is in a position to completely devastate Ul'dah. Much of their trade does come from overseas (keep in mind that Eorzea isn't the entire world, and the only thing left to the East is the Empire). Frankly, the Maelstrom wouldn't even be required to put boots on the ground, assuming the goal was to destroy rather than capture. All that would be needed is to set up a naval blockade, then tell the privateers that Ul'dahn settlements are fair game. Then sit back and watch as port after port burns to the ground. Sure, the Ul'dahn army would slaughter wave after wave of pirates. But that sort of wealth is too great to pass up, and eventually they would succumb to the sheer number of crews from around the globe looking to grab a piece of that sweet desert gold. 

 

Not to mention that Limsans are experts in powder weapons. Ancient weapons and hokey religions are no match for a good musket.

[LiadansWhisper]

With the elementals watching over Gridania, I have no clue how one would stage a successful invasion of the Shroud.

 

I don't think it would be successful, but it could very well destroy Gridania, as well.  When the Shroud is in the Greenwrath, it isn't picky about what it's killing.  If the Great One in Everschade were to waken, for instance, the White Mage questline  seems to indicate that he could level most of the Shroud.  And that he wouldn't really care who he killed in the process.

[Marisa]

With the elementals watching over Gridania, I have no clue how one would stage a successful invasion of the Shroud.

 

I don't think it would be successful, but it could very well destroy Gridania, as well.  When the Shroud is in the Greenwrath, it isn't picky about what it's killing.  If the Great One in Everschade were to waken, for instance, the White Mage questline  seems to indicate that he could level most of the Shroud.  And that he wouldn't really care who he killed in the process.

 

It's possible that a sabotage mission could cause the shroud to self-destruct, but at that point there's no gain to anyone. Better to let them live their lives isolated in their silly little forest than to kill them simply out of spite.

[Sounsyy]

Every time you tell me about the lore from 1.0 and I look at the lore from 2.0, I want to go into a corner and cry.  :cry:

 

1.0 was a good time to be alive.

 

 

It's possible that a sabotage mission could cause the shroud to self-destruct, but at that point there's no gain to anyone. Better to let them live their lives isolated in their silly little forest than to kill them simply out of spite.

 

The problem with trying to occupy Gridania is that no matter how you defeat them, you're never going to get access to the resources of the Twelveswood. Regardless of whether you set off the Greenswrath or just kill them out right in battle. If you slaughter the Padjal, the Elementals will never let another Race of Man into the Wood. Ever. They'd sooner destroy the world again.

 

When Garlemald attempted to burn down the Twelveswood pre-Calamity, they did so because they had no interest in its natural resources. They only saw the forest as a natural barrier to a land-based invasion. Solution: burn it down and get rid of it. Let the fire kill the Elementals and let the Elementals kill the Gridanians. Minimal loss of life on the Garlean side.

 

 

The issue is that people outside of the Shroud don't actually believe in the existence of the Elementals. So while you and I both know what the Elementals are capable of, Ul'dah and Limsa probably do not... and I think the Syndicate might be just dumb enough to try invading Gridania. Which would not end well for either side.

[Berrod Armstrong]

On a slight tangent -- Shroud lore buffs, help me out here. What if the Shroud -doesn't- decide to help the Gridanians? What if the Elementals decide "Wow ok these guys are tearing our forest down to get to YOU guys. GTFO We don't need this!"

 

...What happens then? Is that even a possibility? The thought crossed my mind and now I'm both intrigued and curious.

[Unnamed Mercenary]

On a slight tangent -- Shroud lore buffs, help me out here. What if the Shroud -doesn't- decide to help the Gridanians? What if the Elementals decide "Wow ok these guys are tearing our forest down to get to YOU guys. GTFO We don't need this!"

 

...What happens then? Is that even a possibility? The thought crossed my mind and now I'm both intrigued and curious.

 

Chances are, the Elementals would't /just/ go after the Gridanians though. They'd lash out at everything. They're about as controllable as fire. (Which is this case, would probably be the cause of their rage as well). From what I remember of the 1.0 storyline (never got too far), they pretty much just get enraged, destroy, and either calm down, or get calmed down. But they don't judge. They just attack.

[allgivenover]

On a slight tangent -- Shroud lore buffs, help me out here. What if the Shroud -doesn't- decide to help the Gridanians? What if the Elementals decide "Wow ok these guys are tearing our forest down to get to YOU guys. GTFO We don't need this!"

 

...What happens then? Is that even a possibility? The thought crossed my mind and now I'm both intrigued and curious.

 

They would destroy Gridania, withdraw their bond from the Padjal, and kill anyone that tried to remain. 

 

The Shroud from 1.0 was probably strong enough to do this without destroying itself. Hell, even wandering the Wood without approval was dangerous as the opening cut-scene for Gridanian characters in 1.0 demonstrated.

 

0xnhhJisWNs

 

The Shroud post Calamity? I'm not so sure it could do that without nearly destroying itself and leaving it vulnerable to the Garleans. What lies beneath the Evershade could level the entire forest in its rage - but that would not be a good thing for the Wood.

 

I'm not sure the Elementals would ever come to such a decision, although they think in such an alien way compared to mortals, they understand that they also /need/ Gridania. They need the mortals to solve the mortal problems that will inevitably come to their door regardless of Gridania's presence.

[ZindelloTarantella]

I can see it now.

 

One thousand years after declaring war on one another, the three nations sit idly by waiting for the first casualty. Ul'dah has reinforced its walls waiting for invasion, Limsa's navy has been sitting with cannons pointed waiting for a force to move, and the Gridanians are sipping tea with the elementals.

 

War is hell.

 

"War...War never changes..."

[allgivenover]

As for "who would win", it's difficult to consider Gridania as easily as the other two nations. It is literally a theocracy that's "religion" is really /real/, the other two nations are not built on a magical superpower. Being smote by the Elementals is a real danger, not an abstraction, and Gridania's existence is so tied to the Wood that they're really the same thing at this point. So attempting to destroy Gridania is the same as attempting to destroy the Wood. 

 

If we're reducing the argument to "which side can obliterate the other", then the way to beat Gridania is by convincing the Wood that it doesn't want it anymore (which may be impossible without just destroying the Wood entirely). This would be a very difficult thing to do, and maybe impossible, the Wood is huge, much larger than what is depicted in game. The Calamity was able to burn some of it, and I doubt whatever fires Ul'dah or Limsa tried to set compares to Bahamut's fury. So Gridania may be impossible to destroy without Gridanian resistance, and with the Gridanians working to thwart your efforts it's definitely impossible without leveraging something like Allagan super-weapons.

 

But it also cant really destroy anyone else, so it can't "win" either. Gridania is only interested in external threats. They're largely self-sufficient and don't really even need trade to sustain themselves, because of that their military is structured mostly for defensive purposes. I can't see the might of Gridania being able to destroy Ul'dah or Limsa Lominsa. Ul'dah or Limsa Lominsa could destroy /each other/, and then be in a stalemate with Gridania, but that's where it'd pretty much stop.